Ante-Post Focus

The phrase ‘embarrassment of riches’ is a fitting one for Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown House Stud operation, except for one key fact: you could never accuse O’Leary of being embarrassed by riches.

When it comes to the RSA Chase, the champion event for staying novices at the Cheltenham Festival, it's a phrase that adequately sums things up: Gigginstown has three of the first six in the betting in the shape of First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs and Last Instalment.

With the three of them coming from different yards – Mouse Morris, Willie Mullins and Philip Fenton respectively – there has to be a chance that all of them will show up at the start line on Wednesday 14 March.

While there isn’t a whole lot between them in the bookies’ ante-post lists, Last Instalment is the one I really like and I feel he deserves to be quite a bit shorter in price than the other two.

The reasons for that are two-fold: form and pedigree.

He won the best staying novice chase to take place in Ireland this season (arguably the best to take place on either side of the Irish Sea) in the shape of the Grade 1 Fort Leney Novice Chase at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival.

On that occasion he had First Lieutenant six lengths back in second place. First Lieutenant was the favourite on that occasion but he was no match for Last Instalment and I expect Philip Fenton’s seven-year-old to confirm superiority if they go head-to-head next month.

Sir Des Champs is still unbeaten in all races and as a Cheltenham Festival winner he must go there with a solid chance, but he has clearly been running in races that are inferior to Last Instalment so far this season. He may well be a champion novice but he has to step up in class; Last Instalment, on the other hand, has already proven himself at Grade 1 level.

Last Instalment has won six of his eight races so he clearly has huge ability, but it’s his pedigree which really catches the eye. By Anshan out of an Insan mare, he’s bred to go well on quicker ground, so there has to be a possibility that he will improve again when he’s let loose on the Cheltenham turf, which is likely to be a good bit more solid than the ground he’s been running on – and winning impressively on – in Ireland all winter.

Irish horses have won the last three editions of this race, including one for Gigginstown (Weapons Amnesty two years ago). Three of the first four home last year were Irish (including another Gigginstown horses, Magnanimity), so it remains to be seen whether the home brigade can bridge the gap in the novice division this year.

So where are the dangers? The obvious one is the ante-post favourite, Grands Crus, who has looked a superstar in the making this winter.

He’s a horse with a huge talent – he’s the only one to have given Big Buck’s a real race in three-mile championship hurdle races over the past couple of years – and if he turns up in the RSA Chase he’ll take plenty of beating.

Grands Crus is so good, though, that his trainer David Pipe has already gone on record as saying they could aim him straight at the Gold Cup this time around. It would certainly be no surprise, as the Pipe operation has always worked off the ‘if they’re good enough, they’re old enough’ blueprint.

Nicky Henderson’s Bobs Worth was put in his place by Grands Crus last time out and his short price – he’s as low as 4/1 in places – surely owes more to the fact that Grands Crus may not run than his prospects of overturning that form.

Of those at a longer price, the eye is drawn to Berties Dream, who has already won a Grade 1 staying race at the Festival – the three-mile novice hurdle two years ago – and after failing to really build on that has looked more promising in recent races, none more so than when a wide-margin winner.

He’s now trained by Henry De Bromhead, who knows a thing or two about training big Cheltenham Festival winners, so he looks tasty enough at 33/1.

For the selection, though, I can’t see past Last Instalment.

Recommendation:

1pt win, Last Instalment (8/1, Boylesports)

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