Ireland v Wales: Millennium Stadium to remain a happy hunting ground

Discipline is a worry, but the Millennium Stadium should remain a happy hunting ground for Ireland this weekend, writes Conor Ward.

Ahead of Saturday's clash at the Millennium Stadium, Brian O'Driscoll claims that his side are undaunted by the stadium and its vociferous home support. That should come as no real surprise to us on this side of the water.

Ireland's record there in recent times has been outstanding, having lost in Cardiff just once in 12 meetings since 1983 (of course, that period goes back to include the old Cardiff Arms Park), and prevailing on the last two occasions. Our solitary defeat at the new stadium came in 2005 when we failed to scupper the home side's Grand Slam quest. Two years ago, we won a close but uneventful and ultimately forgettable encounter there!

Joking aside though, you'd have to think Ireland's players love going there, and despite the passionate home crowd, the Welsh players probably realise that the place gives them little if any advantage in this game. It's practically an Irish national treasure for God's sake, or at very least, the proverbial "happy hunting ground".

Memories

Some of the most special memories for Irish rugby in the professional era have, by twist of fate, transpired there rather than in Dublin. Of course I'm taking Munster's Heineken Cup victories into account, so if that doesn't float your boat, maybe the point is diluted a touch in your own case.

While it's hard to imagine he reached Charlie Sheen levels of rage, I'm quite sure that he (Kidney) chilled the spines of his players this week and left them in no doubt they were in the last chance saloon as regards conceding stupid penalties.

Either way, it's pretty much a perfect atmosphere for a player (any quality international player that is) to show his wares - the finest modern facilities, a big noisy crowd, and an immaculate pitch sheltered from hazardous conditions. Our players have certainly taken advantage in the past, and are no doubt relishing the prospect once again.

And despite the fact that Grand Slam ambitions have had to be shelved for this year and the championship looks a very remote possibility indeed, the prize of a Triple Crown will be looming large should we come good this weekend.

I'd also agree with O'Driscoll in his assessment that it's a game which is "up for grabs", given the respective form and talents of the two sides. The results of the two in this campaign have been almost identical - both won tough, tight contests in Rome, both won in Edinburgh though the Welsh did so more convincingly, and both have lost once, Wales at home to England and Ireland at home to the French. So on that basis, there is little to choose between the sides.

Penalty count

But one factor alters the picture slightly - the one which has been dominating coverage in our media - the Irish penalty count, averaging at more than 12 per match to date. And courtesy of Donncha O'Callaghan, it's no secret that Declan Kidney has had quite enough.

While it's hard to imagine he reached Charlie Sheen levels of rage, I'm quite sure that he chilled the spines of his players this week and left them in no doubt they were in the last chance saloon as regards conceding stupid penalties. But Kidney earns respect by being fair also - he has given the same players the jersey again, with the bargain being that they will reward his faith with a more polished disciplined display.

Explosive runners will cause problems

Wales, with their attractive brand of running rugby, revolving around the creativity of James Hook at out-half along with a clutch of explosive runners outside him, will be tough to contain for a full 80 minutes. My bet would be that they'll get two tries.

Therefore, if we give them five or six penalties in addition, they'll have a total of around 30, which we won't surpass. Therefore, the discipline being demanded is of vital importance to our chances, both in keeping their total down and in ensuring we maintain an effective rhythm to our play.

On the back of his fine performance in Edinburgh, I'd expect Ronan O'Gara to again keep us in good stead with smart tactical kicking from hand and slick distribution. Combined with another rampaging effort from our back-row, fewer penalties conceded, and maybe a telling impact from Tommy Bowe on the wing, I see us having just enough to squeak an entertaining game by a few points.