JOE v Paddy Betting Challenge Week 13
Week 13 of our Betting Challenge and JOE still leads over Paddy Power but our lead is dwindling. We both need this week, of all weeks, to be lucky.
A late, meaningless free by Henry Shefflin pushed Kilkenny just far enough ahead of Limerick for Paddy to cover the handicap last week. We had squeezed the odds by one more point to make a bigger profit but it proved to be a costly act of greediness on our part.
Laois also delivered for Paddy while the USA men’s basketball did the business for JOE. It all adds up to JOE still leading but Paddy has pegged back a nice chunk, meaning Week 13 needs to be lucky for JOE to restore our advantage.
The running totals to date. It ain't pretty:
Here goes with this week's selections, with Sean Nolan doing the honours for JOE this week.
Looking at the form line this should be close. Meath only lost by three against Dublin a few weeks back and Laois just beat Meath by the same margin. However, we think that would be foolish.
Laois are on a great run but the teams they have beaten (Carlow, Monaghan, Leitrim and Meath) are not of the top rank, or even close to be honest.
Dublin are. Pat Gilroy is cranking them up again for another Sam and we fully expect them to steamroll over Laois in front of their own fans. The -6 odds are 8/11 but learning nothing from last week, we decided to squeeze again for more money.
There will be no end of talent on show in this game but we all know it is going to be a tight, fiercely fought affair. Kildare, famously, don’t get a lot of goals and while Cork have the forwards to do it, they probably won’t get close enough to goal more than a handful of time.
It looks like the kind of game where one goal will decide it but we will gamble on neither side finding the net.
No disrespect to Gooch and the rest but the star of this weekend should be Usain Bolt. The Jamaican superstar goes in the 100m over Saturday and Sunday and late on Sunday night he is the favourite to win his second Olympic 100m crown.
But the odds on Bolt knocking off his own world record in the event seem too good to miss. The track is London is reported to be fast, the weather should be okay and he does like to put on a show does the big fella. 9.58 is the mark to beat, He should have four shots at it over this weekend. We reckon he will do it.
There are many reasons that have led us to come to this conclusion but let us lead with six – Daniel Goulding, Ciarán Sheehan, Colm O’Neill, Paddy Kelly, Paul Kerrigan and Donncha O’Connor. The Rebels forward line is outstanding and for once the Lilywhites defenders will hold no physical advantage over their opponents.
My only concern for Cork is that their attacking backs may lead to gaps in the defence, however, they should have enough to edge Kildare and are worth backing on the alternative handicap of -3 at 6/5.
Don’t for one second think we’re going bonkers (read: Joe Brolly) and predicting the demise of this great Kerry team. The Kingdom are in good shape with Gooch, Donaghy, Young and Declan O’Sullivan back firing on all cylinders, Bryan Sheehan showing that his 2011 form was no flash in the pan and there’s always the two O’Sé brothers.
However, for us Donegal have been the team of the Championship and we can see them bringing a level of intensity to this contest never before seen at Croke Park. We’re not 100 per cent on this one but we’ll stick to our guns and back the men from the hills.
The Broganator was on fire against the Royal County in the Leinster final helping himself to 1-7 and he could well have scored more. Laois have come on greatly since their loss to Longford but they haven’t played a team close to Dublin’s level this year.
When they last met in Leinster in 2011 the Dubs created goal chance after goal chance and we can see the same thing happening here. With Michael Dara MacAuley likely to be given a roaming role Brogan should have adequate space to create havoc in the full forward line.