JOE v Paddy Betting Challenge, Week 9: GAA, more GAA and a bit more GAA for good measure
Another week, another (ahem) march stolen on Paddy Power by the JOE team. Two more nice picks last weekend – Andres Iniesta to win the Euro 2012 Player of the Tournament at a tasty 3/1 and Westmeath to beat the handicap against Louth – landed us a nice €40 profit and takes us within the same amount of getting into the black in this particular heavyweight head-to-head.
To give credit where it’s due, Paddy also got two out of three correct, albeit both at the tight price of 11/10 – Spain to win in 90 minutes and Donegal to get the better of the one-point handicap against Tyrone. So we’re both clawing back lost ground after a number of tricky weeks, and while there isn’t much opportunity to gloat when your profit and loss tally is still in the red after eight weeks, we’ll take what we can get.
Here’s the running totals:
With Euro 2012 done and dusted and the odds changing on the tennis by the minute, both Paddy and ourselves are concentrating exclusively on GAA this time.
Cork will win another Munster senior football championship on Sunday. Like it’s been on many occasions in recent years (Limerick’s close calls notwithstanding) the real final was between the Rebels and Kerry earlier in the summer.
For the purposes of our bet we’ll side with one of the novelty ones in the Paddy Power GAA armoury. We reckon Cork will keep Clare to a handful of scores on Sunday, so the 3-way points total is the market that caught our eye, and specifically a total of 32 points or less at 15/8. Cork could rack up a score but even if they do that, keeping Clare to single digits could keep this one below the threshold.
Like the lads from Paddy Power we think Davy Fitz could inspire Clare to a win over Dublin this weekend. There isn’t a whole lot between the sides but home advantage could tilt it the Banner’s way, and 7/2 to also lead at half-time (the straight win bet is just 6/5) is too tempting for us to pass up.
We got the Richie Power one right a couple of weeks ago when Kilkenny destroyed Dublin but we’re going to change tack and go for the Cats’ other Richie this time. Kilkenny could hit the net a few times if the mood takes them on Sunday, and it would be no surprise if Hogan, who didn’t find the net against the Dubs but is one of the best goalscorers in the game, nabs one of them.
Two weeks of getting our behinds served to us on a platter has led to us cursing the Joes along with the lads at Cobra. Desperate times call for desperate measures so we’re going to say a few Hail Mary’s and bet on a goal fest at Pairc Uí Caoimh. Our logic here is that Cork will be looking to make a big statement following their disappointing loss to Tipperary while Offaly had no difficulty in finding the net in their previous two fixtures.
Had we priced this match before the league campaign, the Dubs would be strongly favoured with the handicap set at either -3 or -4. Since the beginning of the year, however, Dublin have only won a single game against lowly Laois while Clare won Division 1B at a canter, winning all their games and were unfortunate to be edged out by Waterford in Munster. We expect it to be close but with home advantage we can see Clare nicking it and will back them all the way at 11/10.
We all know that there can only be one winner in this tie; Cork are at odds of 1/100, which I think you’ll agree are skinnier than a pair of Paul Galvin’s jeans. Despite those insurmountable odds we have a sneaky feeling that the underdogs will put in a respectable performance in what is the county’s biggest game in the last 10 years and keep within 11 points of Colm O’Neill, Donncha O’Connor and pals.