The current position is described as “precarious”.
Covid-19 cases could surge to 2,000 a day within the space of four weeks, The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) has warned the government.
The Irish Times reported that a letter had been written by public health officials warning Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly about the precariousness of the current situation.
The letter warned the current levels of reinfection are higher than when restrictions were eased after previous waves of infection. It’s double what it was in December last year and 50 times that of late June in 2020.
On Tuesday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant meant we were facing “essentially a new virus”.
NPHET warned the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant means that viral transmissions and the effective reproduction number will be up to 70% greater than it was in 2020.
With restrictions set to begin easing slightly on 12 April, NPHET said the government did not have the same “headroom” to work with that it had when it first eased restrictions last year.
“The high starting point of 600 cases per day means that case numbers rise rapidly to over 2,000 per day within four weeks,” the letter said.
It’s thought the reproductive number of the virus is currently close to 1, but for a scenario like the one above to emerge, it would only require the R number to reach 1.6.
While the expected mortality will decrease, until a greater number of the population is vaccinated, there will still be a significant number of hospitalisations, NPHET warned.
From 12 April, a full return of schools will take place, while outdoor meetings between two families (not in private gardens) and indoor meetings between two people who have been fully vaccinated will also be permitted.
You can read a full breakdown on what restrictions are changing here.
LISTEN: You Must Be Jokin’ with Aideen McQueen – Faith healers, Coolock craic and Gigging as Gaeilge
