“The hurricane is bending gradually towards Ireland but with a margin of uncertainty around its track.”
Met Éireann have stated that they’re currently tracking the development of Hurricane Lorenzo amid concerns that it might reach Ireland later this week.
They’ve stated that: “Hurricane Lorenzo is currently (Saturday, 28 September at 12:00) a Major Hurricane (M), positioned in the south Atlantic. In the coming days, it is expected to gradually track northeastwards in the direction of Ireland. However, the exact track and the severity of the system once it comes closer to land is still uncertain. It is expected to lose its major status soon and transition to a Hurricane (H).”
On Sunday morning, the National Hurricane centre categorised Lorenzo as “an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. It is the strongest hurricane on record this far north and east in the Atlantic basin” but Met Éireann said that there’s some uncertainty around its path.
“The latest National Hurricane Centre forecast shows the hurricane bending gradually towards Ireland but with a margin of uncertainty around its track,” they stated.
Lorenzo is now an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. It is the strongest hurricane on record this far north and east in the Atlantic basin. pic.twitter.com/nUR5ugJws7
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 29, 2019
The European Medium Range forecast model that Met Éireann use shows a larger spread once it comes nearer this side of the Atlantic.
They state: “This indicates that there is a great deal of uncertainty on whether it will impact Ireland. This model calculates 50 possible solutions, all starting with slightly different initial values of its track to reflect the uncertainty of its future track. The black line in this graphic (below) shows the forecast track of the current computer model run, and the colours indicate all the other possible tracks in the ensemble of 50 members.”
At the present moment, they’ve stated that if Hurricane Lorenzo does reach Ireland, it will likely arrive on Thursday and Friday.
In terms of the weather forecast for those days, Met Éireann state that “there is potential for unsettled weather to develop during this period. However, uncertainties in the detail remain due to the track of Lorenzo for this timeframe. It is likely to become milder due to the influence of tropical origin air.”
Met Éireann is closely monitoring the progress of Lorenzo in the south Atlantic.
Main image via Carlow Weather
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