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18th February 2025
04:29pm GMT
Earlier this year, asteroid '2024 YR4' was given a 1.3 per cent chance of hitting Earth after it was spotted by a telescope in Chile last December.
However, Nasa has now doubled the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth, meaning it now has a 2.3 per cent chance of impact.
The date of impact would be December 22, 2032.
In a post on X, NASA Asteroid Watch said: "While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known."
Famed astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson issued a grave warning about the 'city-killer' asteroid that could impact Earth.
He said on X last week: "At the moment, mansion-sized Asteroid 2024-YR4 has a one in fifty chance of hitting Earth in the next eight years. Now might be a bad time to reduce spending on Science. Just sayin'."
At the moment, mansion-sized Asteroid 2024-YR4 has a one-in-fifty chance of hitting Earth in the next eight years.
— Neil deGrasse Tyson (@neiltyson) February 15, 2025
Now might be a bad time to reduce spending on Science. Just sayin’. pic.twitter.com/hzmIjEJRBr
Previously, professor Brian Cox warned humanity could "have to make a decision" regarding an asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032.
Cox has suggested the world may soon have to "make a decision" in regards to the asteroid and whether a "deflection mission" is prepared should the likelihood of impact grow.
In a post on X, the physicist wrote: "Interesting situation - if the probability remains this high then we will have to make a decision on preparing a deflection mission - which would be a good investment even if (as is most likely) we don’t need to use it this time.
"It’s as if the Universe has decided to do an experiment to see if Planet Earth is still capable of taking rational decisions!"
The asteroid has already prompted a global planetary defence response at the European Space Agency (ESA) for the first time in its history, and sits at the top of the ESA’s and NASA’s impact risk list.
NASA estimates 2024 YR4 has a diameter of 130-300 feet.
As observations of the asteroid continue, it is possible that it will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as often happens. However, it is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.
You can read more about asteroid 2024 YR4 on the NASA website here.
