This is very worrying.
The Central Bank has delivered its first detailed forecast for the Irish economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
In its most recent Quarterly Bulletin, the Central Bank painted a very bleak picture when discussing an Ireland under a “disorderly” no-deal Brexit.
The Central Bank has predicted significant disruption and a negative shock to economic activity that would adversely affect output and employment.
In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from its current rate of 5.3% to just under 7% by 2021.
It also expects the price of many imported consumer goods, such as cereals and processed foods, to rise due to tariffs and higher transport costs.
Economic growth will be reduced to just 0.8%, but the underlying position of the economy will slip into recession.
However, if you’re an optimist, the Central Bank has also said that if a disorderly, no-deal Brexit can be avoided, it is projected that underlying economic activity will grow at a relatively solid pace in coming years, though with some moderation in growth in prospect.
Recently, the Central Bank has also warned of potential massive job loss in Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
You can read the Central Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin in full here.
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