Latest poll predicts Greater Manchester mayoral election as Burnham’s replacement set be chosen

Andy Burnham's replacement is set to be chosen

A mayoral election was triggered last month when Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, entering parliament and leaving vacant his role of Greater Manchester Mayor.

Burnham will, of course, become prime minister from next week after Keir Starmer announced he would be stepping down in June.

With this political game of musical chairs, the seat of Greater Manchester Mayor needs filling, and the candidates have already been out canvassing for votes.

While it's not quite as exciting as the upcoming by-election set to happen down in Clacton with Nigel Farage set to go head to head with Count Binface, it is without a doubt more important.

The election has seven people running, six from major parties and one independent.

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election candidates:

Manchester city centre. Credit: Adobe Stock.

(In alphabetical order)

ASTLEY, Sian - Reform

COGGINS, Geraldine - Greens

CRAIG, Bev - Labour

ECKERSLEY, Phil - Conservatives

FARMER, Marcus - Independent

KILPATRICK, Richard - Lib Dems

WEST, Marlon - Restore

What do the polls say?

As per the latest voting intention poll from YouGov, there is a definitive answer as to who is most likely to win.

And, given Manchester's historic voting record, it's Bev Craig and Labour.

The current leader of Manchester City Council, Craig is predicted to get 38% of the vote share.

With the election employing the secondary vote system, Craig also leads in second votes with 62 percent.

Second in the poll is Reform with 24% of the vote, meaning they pick up the remaining 38% in the secondary vote.

The Greens are third with 17%, the Conservatives with 11%, Restore with 7%, Lib Dems 3% and Marcus Farmer independent with 1%.

What is the supplementary voting system?

The supplementary vote system is a way of making sure that the most people possible have voted for the person who wins the election.

In a scenario where something doesn't get a majority 50% of the vote, the top two candidates are taken and put against each other.

The other candidates are eliminated.

The supplementary votes given to these two candidates are counted up and added on to the total.

Whoever gets the most wins. Simples.