The Dubs are raging hot favourites to beat old rivals Kerry this weekend, but are the Kingdom capable of causing an upset? Two JOEs argue the toss.
Conor Heneghan says… I haven’t been near Killarney, Tralee, Dingle or anywhere else in the Kingdom in the last few weeks, but I would imagine that football folk in the county are rubbing their hands at the fact that people are even asking whether they can beat the Dubs this weekend, never mind the fact that they’re going in as 23/10 underdogs.
Tradition and reputation should only be considered as minor factors when it comes to predicting the outcome of Sunday’s game but of all teams you should never write off in Gaelic Football, Kerry, much like Germany in international football, are the top of the pile.
Besides, it’s not as if we’re talking about David v Goliath here. Yes, Dublin have been incredibly impressive throughout the league and the Championship and they have been playing a style of football that looks impossible to deal with at times.
But they’re coming up against a Kingdom outfit who successfully negotiated a path through Division One after a tricky start and have, bar a belated test from Cork in the Munster Final, breezed through the Championship with the minimum of fuss and often *cute hoor alert* giving the distinct impression that they are holding something in reserve.
The 2009 All-Ireland quarter-final between the sides has been often referenced in the build-up to this game because Kerry threw form out the window and absolutely blitzed their big city rivals but its relevance is diminished somewhat when you consider that this Dublin team is better and this Kerry team is not quite at the same level as the 2009 versions of themselves.
Still, there are parallels between this weekend’s game and the meeting four years ago that Kerry can take encouragement from.
The famous ‘startled earwigs’ that Pat Gilroy referred to on that day led Gilroy to adopt a more defensive mindset in the following three years, but Jim Gavin has returned to a more carefree approach which could leave gaps for the likes of Colm Cooper, Declan and Darran O’Sullivan and James O’Donoghue to exploit. Cooper has been flying on the ’40 all year but I expect him to wander into the inside line on occasions and give the Dublin defence something to think about.
A lot has been made of Kerry’s age profile compared to Dublin and being exposed in the wide open spaces of Croke Park is something that must be concerning Eamonn Fitzmaurice but something that Kerry have in abundance is experience and you can’t underestimate how important that is at this stage of the game.
To Mayo’s credit, they emerged from a fairly perilous situation on Sunday, but how will Dublin react in a similar situation this weekend?
The likes of Jack McCaffrey, Ciaran Kilkenny and Paul Mannion have been outstanding this year but how will they react if the going gets tough? There’s every chance that they’ll flourish but who knows, maybe later in their careers they’ll talk about the experience of losing to a battle-hardened Kerry side and how important it was in terms of character-building.
Also, as impressive as Dublin have been, both Meath and Cork showed up chinks in their armour and not many would argue that Kerry are better, and cuter, than both of those teams and of all the teams in the country, no-one will relish the prospect of taking the Dubs down a notch than Kerry. It’s the whole history thing, innit?
The formbook is saying Dublin and on the evidence we’ve seen so far this year, the logical thing to expect is that it will be they who go on to meet Mayo in the final.
But would it be a surprise if it is Kerry who go onto what will be a fairly phenomenal tenth final appearance since the turn of the millennium? Not to me it certainly wouldn’t.
Sean Nolan says… While it would be foolish to write off the Kingdom, I’m going to do it anyway.
In 2013, the two standout football teams in the country have been Mayo and Dublin. While other teams have played well for short spells, or closed games out efficiently, only the Connacht and Leinster champs have had the sheen of All-Ireland finalists to them.
Take last week. If we were to match up Mayo and Tyrone ‘Top Trumps’ style before the match, the men from the west would have outscored Mickey Harte’s men in every conceivable category.
Scoring, bench, experience, speed, hunger; you name it, Mayo had the advantage and the end result confirmed it.
If we had two more cards printed for this week, Dublin would lead nearly every category too.
Let’s start with scoring. Kerry have had a decent spread of scorers so far in the Championship, and any team with the likes of Colm Cooper, Darran and Declan O’Sullivan and Donnacha Walsh has to be respected.
But Dublin have even more firepower. Not only have they got a high-scoring half forward line in the shape of the lethal Paul Flynn, Ciaran Kilkenny and Diarmuid Connolly combo, but they have lots of scores coming from their half back line courtesy of speed merchant Jack McCaffrey.
Add in Michael Darragh MacAuley chipping in from midfield, Stephen Cluxton’s metronomic place kicking and the scoring power off the bench from the likes of Dean Rock, Eoghan O’Gara and Kevin McManamon and it is advantage Dublin on that score. And if Bernard Brogan finds his scoring boots again, it could get very ugly indeed for the Kingdom.
Speed is another factor. While Eamonn Fitzmaurice tried to lower his age profile by keeping Eoin Brosnan in reserve and deploying Mark Griffin in place of the injured Killian Young, the O Sé brothers have a lot of miles on the clock and the one thing we do know about Dublin is that they will run hard and fast at you for the full 70 minutes.
Trying to keep pace with them on the *cliché alert* ‘wide open spaces of Croke Park’ is a thankless task, especially as the game wears on. I reckon Dublin will just keep punching holes until they find a way through, and the final 20 could be when they do some serious damage.
The final deciding factor relates to restarts, and just how to stop Dublin from dominating possession. Cluxton’s ability to find free men with short to medium length kicks is a massive boost to Jim Gavin’s side. Kerry will have to press up and close down every one of the Dublin defenders and force a long kickout as often as they can. Even if they do, you have to assume that Cian O’Sullivan and MacAuley will at least break even against Anthony Maher and Johnny Buckley.
Unless Cluxton has an uncharacteristic off day, Kerry could spend the majority of the game chasing after Dublin players, a tiring task for 70 minutes that will eventually hurt them.
The fear with Kerry is always that they have hidden their hand, timing their run to perfection like a 5,000 metre runner hearing the bell. And while I think we will see a better Kerry than we did against Cork, and Cavan, I just don’t think they can cope with the range of threats Dublin will rain down on them.
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