Burning Issue: Who’s gonna win Sam, Mayo or Dublin?

Will the Boys in Blue make it two All-Irelands in three years or are Mayo going to end the most celebrated famine in GAA history? Two JOEs make the case for either side.

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Conor Heneghan says... I’ve lost count of the amount of times I’ve been asked by fellow Mayo people about the game this weekend and nearly every single time, the poser of the question refuses to take my answer at face value. ‘So, do you think we’ll win this weekend?’ ‘I do, yeah.’ ‘Do you really, seriously like? ‘I do yeah.’ As the nature of that back and forth suggests, this year, as has often been the case, Mayo fans have become enveloped in a blanket of insecurity coming up to All-Ireland weekend. A general mood of slightly over the top-optimism after the Donegal victory turned into optimism dosed with a little realism after defeating Tyrone and, as the time has passed, is now one of extreme nervousness that will turn into raw fear of yet another gut-wrenching defeat by the time the ball is thrown in on Sunday afternoon. We always find reasons for doubt and in fairness, you wouldn’t blame us either. We’ve lost six finals and drawn one since 1989 and many supporters going to Croker on Sunday will have been to every single one of those games. I’ve only missed the 1989 one myself, but one of my earliest ever memories is of my five-year-old self watching that game on the box and seeing Dinny Allen lift Sam through teary eyes at the end. Our backs are sore from consolatory pats on the back while walking up Clonliffe and Jones’ Road after another final defeat and our ears are burned from people from other counties telling us that they’d ‘love to see us win an All-Ireland’. Pessimism is almost a natural emotion at this stage because we fear the devastating let-down if things go awry again. It’s the hope that kills you, after all. The time has come, however, to stop thinking about how and why we might lose and instead to focus on genuine reasons why we might end up winning the bloody thing once and for all. James Horan and this Mayo team have earned the right to be trusted and although we believed in them last year, there are numerous reasons why our faith should be stronger this time around. Let’s look at some stats for starters. So far in the Championship, Mayo have scored 14-81, an average of 20.5 points per game. They’ve beaten the five teams they have met in the Championship so far by an average margin of over 13 points and while you might say that figure is skewed by a 16 point defeat of London, they also defeated last year’s All-Ireland Champions by the same margin. They struggled at times against Tyrone but still won by a six point margin that could have been a lot more and you only have to ask Dublin how difficult it can be to play against Mickey Harte’s side. Eighteen different players have scored for Mayo in the Championship so far this year and the starting half back line of Lee Keegan, Donal Vaughan and Colm Boyle have racked up a quite staggering 2-12 between them. Aidan O’Shea is in the form of his life in the middle of the park and his older brother is flourishing while doing the less flashy stuff alongside him. People rightly talk about the quality on the Dublin bench but Mayo have strength in that department too. The full forward line that started last year’s All-Ireland Final (taking into account that Jason Doherty played closer to goal) can all be called on, as can 2012 All-Star nominee Barry Moran, the impressive Cathal Carolan and the very reliable Richie Feeney. When you hear Mayo players talk about the strength in depth of the current panel, they certainly mean it. If I was on the other side of the fence I could make similar and arguably even stronger arguments in Dublin’s favour; they’re a helluva team with a brilliant manager and a philosophy of football that has been a breath of fresh air compared to the approach of some other teams in the last few years. But I’d prefer to accentuate the positives from a Mayo perspective. If Mayo can right the wrongs of last year’s final in avoiding a horror start and ensuring that the right defenders are marking the Dublin danger men, if they can put as much pressure on Stephen Cluxton’s kickouts as they did in last year’s semi-final and as Kerry did last time out, if Cillian O’Connor manages to come through unscathed and if Andy Moran can return to something resembling his old self then we’re in with a hell of a chance. And you know what, we might even finally win the feckin’ thing after all.

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Sean Nolan says... there’s almost nothing between Mayo and Dublin, but the Boys in Blue have the edge in one crucial area.

There is no disputing the fact that the two best teams in the country are in the All-Ireland final. Both are unbeaten and have looked pretty much unbeatable thus far.

But something has to give on Sunday and that means we have to look at the game through a number of filters.

The first is experience. While Mayo’s defeat last year can just as easily be viewed as a positive this year (learn from mistakes, reduction of nerves etc) it can also be viewed as a negative (the ‘surely this is our year’ factor). Dublin’s team, by and large, is made up of the same men that won it all in 2011. On balance, this area is a dead heat.

The second is the men on the sideline in the bainisteoir bibs. It might be Jim Gavin’s first year at the helm of the Dubs but he exudes a quiet calm that is almost unnerving to a neutral so Lord knows what it does to the opposition management team.

James Horan is another from the Zen Master school of coaching, giving little away as he patrols the whitewash. Both men have the complete trust of their panels and tactically both are firm believers in their style. You could give the nod to the more experienced Horan here but it would only be by the finest of margins.

The third and final factor is the largest, and the most crucial in my view; the talent on the pitch. As I said at the start, these are the two best teams in the country, and they are also the two best panels.

Mayo can afford to have lads like Enda Varley and Barry Moran on the bench, while Dublin’s timber is groaning under the ability of Dean Rock, Kevin McManamon, Philly McMahon and Denis Bastick and that’s before we even mention a certain former Footballer of the Year, Alan Brogan.

But when it comes to ability, man for man ability, Dublin have the edge, by a margin big enough to swing it for me. Bernard Brogan looked like a man getting his game back in top order against Kerry. I expect him to be in full flight on Sunday and if he is, there is nothing Ger Cafferkey or any man in red and green can do to stop him.

His forward colleagues, while not as cohesive a unit as their opponents, are better individuals and a knock on them is that they play like individuals at times. That is true but when those individuals are as good as Ciaran Kilkenny, Paul Flynn, Paul Mannion and Diarmuid Connolly then that usually works out just fine.

At midfield, the O’Sheas have been superb but the Michael Darragh MacAuley/Cian O’Sullivan duo have improved in every game while Stephen Cluxton still has the edge on all the other keepers in the country, even the impressive Rob Hennelly.

And, as we mentioned above, the Dublin bench has both skill and brawn, depending on what’s required. Jim Gavin has an F1 car at his fingertips, and a garage full of spare parts if he needs them. James Horan’s car is just as fast, but the pieces may not be quite as polished, and that fraction of a difference will decide the race for Sam in Dublin’s favour.