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9th April 2014
03:16pm BST
Did you get an unexplained whiff of azaleas this morning? Are you getting your prayer book out for Amen Corner? Have you taken a sudden and deep interest in Rory McIlroy’s Greens In Regulation percentage? Good, then you have a confirmed case of Masters Fever and we’re here to administer some soothing balm to your sweating brow.
The US Masters, played every Spring at Augusta National, is not just the first golf Major of the year, it is THE golf Major of the year. No tournament generates as much interest from casual sports fans and as a betting market it is easily one of the biggest of the year in any sport.
Like that other annual punting spree, the Grand National, picking a winner is hellishly difficult but that’s half the fun. And if you do have a few bob on the man who ends up in Butler Cabin on Sunday night enduring an excruciating interview with Jim Nantz then it is even more fun.
So, who should you pin your hopes on with BetPack this year? First, let’s rule some big names out.
With Tiger Woods missing through injury, the focus of the media is understandably on the man most likely to take his place as the next golfing great, Rory McIlroy. In five previous visits the Holywood man has never finished higher than 15th (2011, the year of the meltdown). In five events this year he has played consistent golf, with five Top 25 finishes, but he hasn’t shown the dominance that his ability should deliver. He simply hasn’t been Tigerish in any sense. His closing round at last week’s Houston Open was a sparkling 65 and was a sign he is still the most talented guy on Tour but at 14/1, he is just too short a price for us to invest.
One word of caution though. First-time winners of the Masters have played the event on average six times before they get their hands on that famous jacket.
A man who already has a jacket in his wardrobe is last year’s winner Adam Scott (above). Like McIlroy, he has been solid without winning this term and his collapse at Bay Hill last month was a reminder of the old, fragile Scott we thought had been left behind. With the self-acclaimed best caddie in the world on his bag, Steve Williams, Scott has all the tools to win it again but only three men have ever retained the Masters; Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger. We simply can’t imagine Scott joining that hyper-exclusive club, especially at 11/1.
With injury doubts casting a shadow over another previous winner, Phil Mickelson (12/1), we believe the best shot of a repeat winner lies with Bubba Watson. Generously priced at 25/1, Bubba has looked back to his best in 2014. Augusta is a long course - though it is 10 yards shorter this year – and Bubba leads the PGA Tour in driving distance, averaging a filthy 317.7 yards. His accuracy is not so good but that doesn’t matter all that much at Augusta, where the run-off areas are very large indeed. His scrambling is rated 10th on Tour and as we know, Bubba can hit killer shots from anywhere, as he showed at Augusta in 2012.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REZ41Nfscl4
With five top 10s this year, including a win and two second places, Bubba is our best bet for a straight up win punt.
However, BetPack are paying EW on the Top 6, so here’s our rundown of the best bets for a place finish.
Matt Kuchar (20/1) has a great shot at finally landing that first Major title. Rapidly overtaking Lee Westwood as the best player never to win one of golf’s big prizes, the 35-year-old has finished third and eighth over the last two years. His driving distance is nothing to write home about but he more than makes up for it with excellent putting and Green In Regulation play. Cooler than a Roy Keane stare, ‘Kuch’ has all the things you expect in a Masters champ and he should be there or thereabouts come Sunday evening.
Dustin Johnson (25/1) is also worth a few bob of your money. Second only to Bubba in driving, Johnson has always made the cut when he plays Augusta and he was 13th last year. With a win and two seconds on his 2014 CV, he is in form and his Greens In Regulation rating (third) and scoring average (fifth) are further proof of that.
Looking at some bigger priced options, Gary Woodland (60/1) can blow hot and cold but he hits it miles and could figure and we have a soft spot for Russell Henley (100/1), who won the Honda Classic earlier this season.
Finally, at 225/1, South African Branden Grace (above) is worth small investment if you want to go for a real long shot. He finished 18th on his debut at Augusta last year and he has won on the European Tour this season. A first-round 78 ruined his chances in last year’s Masters but subsequent rounds of 70, 71 and 69 showed he can pilot his way around this famous course with the best of them. If he can turn that 78 into a 70 this year, he could be the smartest bet of the lot this week.
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