We have another stellar weekend of rugby action this weekend in the Champions Cup and arguably the tie of the round is the clash of Ulster and European heavyweights Toulon at Kingspan Stadium on Saturday.
Ulster will be disappointed with their opening day loss to Leicester at Welford Road last weekend where their lack of precision at set plays cost them dearly. They did scrape a losing bonus point, however, which could be vital in such a tight group. Toulon had a home win against the Scarlets but they were less than convincing and failed to secure a winning bonus point against arguably the weakest side in the pool.
Ulster are under pressure now to get a result on Saturday because a loss would almost certainly end their interest in the competition with two losses and an away trip to Toulon on the horizon. A win would put them back near the top of the table ahead of a very manageable back to back set of games against the Scarlets in the coming months.
It’s hard to believe that this is just Toulon’s fourth season in Europe’s top tier given their dominance over the last two seasons. The two-time Heineken Cup winners are the favourites to go down in history as the winners of the inaugural Champions Cup but they will have to get over a stiff Ulster test on Saturday.
Ulster have a lot to prove this weekend following a flat performance against Leicester. An intercept try and an absolute debacle of a line-out effectively lost the game for the northerners. They showed some spirit by fighting back in the second half but ultimately they had given the English side too much of a head start to pull off an amazing comeback.
Going into this weekend’s game, Ulster have plenty to work on. A thoroughly unreliable line-out needs to be corrected if they are to have any chance of overturning the champions. Rory Best is a great hooker and hopefully his collapse against Leicester was just one bad game and his line-out throwing will be back to its usual high standards this weekend.
In the first half against Leicester they seemed to lack concentration and made too many simple errors of the kind that are not acceptable at this level. Tommy Bowe and Craig Gilroy were both guilty of early tackles under a dropping ball and it is easy to put that down to over-eagerness but they weren’t watching the flight of the ball at all and it is just unacceptable from players of their calibre.
Paul Marshall threw a silly intercept pass to Ben Youngs which resulted in a try and they just didn’t look up for the game in the first half. The second half was more like the Ulster we usually see as, despite a dodgy line-out, they went through the phases in open play and steadily made yards against the Leicester defence. They played a quality of rugby in the closing half hour that Leicester were unable to match, even during their peak in the first half.
Steffon Armitage (left) is a key player for Toulon
How will the game play out?
If they can somehow bring that last half hour out over the course of the game on Saturday, we genuinely think Ulster will beat this star-studded Toulon side. They know that if they lose this weekend, they will have very little left to play for in the competition and it is a very long season to be just concentrating on the PRO12.
They will have to play a clever game against this Toulon side; if they try to take them on physically there is only going to be one winner. Ulster are just short of a little bulk with the recent losses of Stephen Ferris, Dan Tuohy and Iain Henderson. Therefore, they will have to play a high tempo game and not give Toulon the opportunity to challenge at the breakdown and definitely not let Toulon’s big ball carriers get any momentum, which is easier said than done. But the selection of Roger Wilson at eight suggests that this is the type of game they will try to play, while holding Nick Williams in reserve for impact in the last quarter.
We are going for an Ulster win by seven points or less…
Ulster: 15 Louis Ludik, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Stuart Olding, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Paul Marshall, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Robbie Diack, 5 Franco Van Der Merwe, 4 Lewis Stevenson, 3 Wiehahn Herbst, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Andy Warwick.
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Callum Black, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Clive Ross, 20 Nick Williams, 21 Michael Heaney, 22 Ian Humphreys, 23 Darren Cave.
Toulon: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Delon Armitage, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Michael Claassens, 8 Chris Masoe, 7 Steffon Armitage, 6 Juan Fernandez Lobbe, 5 Romain Taofifenua, 4 Jocelino Suta, 3 Carl Hayman (c), 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Alexandre Menini.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Fabien Barcella, 18 Levan Chilachava, 19 Bakkies Botha, 20 James O'Connor, 21 Ali Williams, 22 Sebastien Tillous-Borde, 23 Juan Smith.
Date: Saturday, October 25
Kick-off: 13:00
Venue: Kingspan Stadium
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Tim Wigglesworth (England), Nigel Carrick (England)
Television match official: Rowan Kitt (England)
Timekeeper: Scottie Rankin (Ireland)
Assessor: John Coyle (Ireland)
