Tonight in the NFL, all teams will potentially add to their roster a gem that will go on to a glittering career or a dud who will disappear without trace.
By Sean Nolan
“Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein.” Joe Thiesmann, former NFL quarterback.
Panning for gold. That’s what has been happening since the Packers walked off with the big shiny football. For some, spending their time sluicing through sand for nuggets would be a far more profitable pursuit. Some will blow millions of dollars on players who ultimately do little good for their team, while others will set franchises back for years.
With the impending strike in the NFL, it may take even longer to find who struck gold and who hit pyrite, but everyone will leave New York thinking they are millionaires.
But when you hit the jackpot, and find that big hunk of pure, glistening gold, it makes it all worth it. That is why the NFL draft holds such hope and such enduring appeal.
But there are rarely such rich seams of talent as that mined by the likes of Peyton Manning – No 1 pick in 1998. The son of an NFL quarterback, possessor of glittering college career and with the game to thrive in the NFL, he looked as sure a thing as ever existed in the draft.
A tale of two draft picks
Want to see how narrow the margin of success is? After the Indianapolis Colts selected Manning, the second pick went to the San Diego Chargers and they picked another QB, Ryan Leaf.
There was little between the two before the draft, and some sages even favoured Leaf. Leaf’s attitude was vastly different to Manning, though, and his arrogance and inability to handle the pressure meant he quickly crumbled. Injuries then further hampered him and he retired aged 26 in 2002.
Since then he has been indicted for a number of drug offences and is reported to be living in anonymity in Canada. Choosing Leaf cost the Chargers about $20million. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning is one of the best QBs to ever play in the NFL, with four MVPs, one Superbowl and he has led the Colts to the playoffs 11 out of 12 years.
So are there any Mannings or Leafs in this year’s draft? Probably. Who are they? Nobody knows.
Prized assets
As always, QBs are the most prized asset, especially for teams at the top of the draft. Last year’s first pick, Sam Bradford, looks like a Manning after a great opening season at QB for the St Louis Rams. This year the two vying for top spot are Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, and the possibility for a repeat of 1998 looms large.
Newton led his college team, Auburn, to the National Title and he picked up the Heismann trophy for the best player in college football. So far, so good. But Newton’s career was dogged by controversy about his eligibility for Auburn after allegations of his father taking money for his recruitment.
Heismann trophy winner Cam Newton is likely to be the #1 draft pick despite controversy surrounding his father
Some fear the malign influence of his father when the real NFL money kicks in. But more concerning is his style of play. As a running QB he dominated college defences, but in the NFL he has to develop a throwing game and there seem to be questions over his ability to do this.
But like old-time prospectors, the Carolina Panthers, who have the first pick, simply won’t be able to pass the potential of Newton. It’s a gamble, but if it pays off it will be worth it.
As for Gabbert, he had a much more low key college career at Missouri but he has improved so much in the last two years that some think he can stay on an upward curve until kinks in his action are ironed out. He has the arm necessary but he is still a gamble. Not too much of a gamble though so he will go in the top five.
Prospects
Further down the draft there are some amazing prospects. Marcell Dareus is a 6’3”, 23 stone tackle machine who will fill a big gap in a terrible team’s defence. Cam Newton’s Auburn teammate Nick Fairley is another defensive tackle who looks a dead cert to succeed.
Then there is Da’Quan Bowers. This time last year, he was projected to be number one as he was an incredibly athletic defensive end for Clemson. But a serious knee injury has meant he has dropped way down the projections but someone will take a chance because if they can get him fit, they have a star.
One to watch
But for me, the one to watch is Mark Ingram. The running back won the Heismann and National Title in 2009 with Alabama but returned to school for one more year. Big mistake Mark. An injury slowed his season and a player who would definitely have gone No 1 or 2 last year will now go in the low 20s.
Unless someone takes a punt. That’s what it’s all about. No more than the guys in Alaska with a plate and a dream, there will be winners and losers tonight in Radio City Music Hall in New York.
With the impending strike in the NFL, it may take even longer to find who struck gold and who hit pyrite, but everyone will leave New York thinking they are millionaires.
Only the players and a tiny handful of the teams will be.
