05/12 The Front Pages

The headline in the Sunday Independent is 'SF swing can make Gilmore Taoiseach,' in which they claim that a government led by Gilmore and with Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams as Tánaiste is 'uncomfortably close to reality'. Latest poll figures conclude that Labour will get 48 and Sinn Fein will get 24, leaving them 11 seats short of an overall majority.

The Indo speculates that they could get those 11 seats from Independents. Fine Gael are set to win 67 seats, which if you think about it means they could almost go into government without the support of Labour, if Gilmore was to attempt to double cross them like that. 67 + 15 Independents = 82. Fianna Fail, meanwhile, will win 12 (really? that many?) according to the poll, while the Green Party will lose all of their seats.

If Fine Gael or Labour were to attempt to go in without the other, Independents will be kingmakers. If they were to go in together, which seems far more likely, their majority would be such that Independents would be practically irrelevant. One of those irrelevant men, Michael Lowry, was speaking to the Sunday Tribune. He said, "My position is that I'm reluctant to vote for the budget for several reasons. But certainly there is no question of me voting for it if the negotiators on behalf of the state can't do a prudent deal for the country."

It is suggested Lowry might abstain from the vote. Excluding the North Tipp TD and Jackie Healy-Rae, the Government will have 80 votes for the budget. The opposition can garner 80 also if they decide to reject it. That means the deciding vote would be with the Ceann Comhairle. That man is Seamus Kirk of Fianna Fail, oh well.