NFL Week 11 Review: Real or not real?

With the Thanksgiving Day games almost upon us, it is time to look at those sneaky teams that were not expected to be in strong positions so late in the year and ask whether they can keep it up.

By Sean Nolan

Let’s start with the Chicago Bears. They lead the NFC North with a 7-3 record, ahead of Green Bay courtesy of their 20-17 win over the Packers in week 3. Nobody seems convinced by the Bears and here are some reasons.

They have scored the second fewest points of any divisional leader (191, just ahead of the Seahawks on 185). Quarterback Jay Cutler has just 12 TDs to go with his 10 interceptions, as well as enduring a league-leading 33 sacks.

Those seven wins, including Thursday night’s shutout of Miami 16-0, have all come against teams with losing records except for one, the defeat of the Packers.

And that sole important win is what makes them hard to ignore. The Packers made a lot of mistakes that night, but the Bears offensive and defensive lines looked sharp and after a disastrous week 4 against New York, things have steadily improved.

They have a tough run in, playing their three divisional opponents, all away, plus the Eagles, Pats and Jets travel to Soldier Field. But their last game is against the Packers and it remains possible that it could be a winner takes all game at Lambeau on Jan 2.

Why? Well because the play-off spots are going to be hard to come by in the NFC. Seven teams have six wins or more right now.

Sleeper hits

Another sleeper team are the Falcons. We questioned whether they could really compete with the Saints in the NFC South, but with just six games to go they lead the division 8-2 after beating the Rams 34-17 on Sunday.

Just behind them are the Saints and the Buccaneers – another sleeper hit – on 7-3. But in contrast to the Bears, the Falcons have beaten teams of the calibre of the Saints and the Ravens. They have an efficient QB in Matt Ryan and a solid rush and pass offence. They still have to play Carolina twice – surely two wins - and if they can beat the Saints at home they will definitely be seeded for the post-season.

But possibly the most shocking team we are forced to pay attention to at this late stage are the 6-4 Jaguars. Being in the same division as the Colts means they have been overlooked for years. And finishing bottom of the division for the last two years meant nobody expected them to be ahead of the Titans or the Texans, never mind the Colts.

But today they sit top, ahead of the Colts via a win over them in week 4. The Jags beat the Browns 24-20 this week, while the Colts lost out in a gripping contest to the Pats 28-31. Jacksonville are ranked 28th in passing yards conceded, 19th in rushing yards conceded and they are ranked 25th in passing themselves.

Maurice Jones Drew has been outstanding for the Jacksonville Jaguars

So how are they doing it? One Maurice Jones Drew (above) is the answer. He scored 15 TDs last year compared to five so far this year but he is ranked fourth in yards per game (87.8) and the Jags game is based on his ability to earn first downs.

It’s hard to believe the Jags will win the division, but they could win the majority of their remaining games and as the Titans and Texans struggle and the Colts suffer yet more injuries, stranger things have happened.

NFC West

Speaking of which, we have to talk about the NFC West. All four teams lost this weekend, and the combined record of the Seahawks, Rams, 49ers and Cardinals is 15-25. Only the Seahawks, on 5-5, are at .500 or better.  If any of the teams manage to go on some kind of run, they will win the division and earn a post-season berth. Even the previously hopeless 49ers, now sitting on 3-7, could yet come out on top.

We laughed when the team owner Jed York said they could still win the division after the team went 0-5. In this most bizarre of seasons, he might yet be right.

Finally we wave goodbye to Brad Childress, the now former coach of the Minnesota Vikings. The Brett Favre gamble almost won the lot for him last year. This year it failed like an Irish bank. Next on the chopping block? Probably Marvin Lewis, of the hugely disappointing Bengals, who contrived to throw away a 21-point lead to the Bills before eventually losing 49-31.

Week 11 scores

Bears 16 Dolphins 0

Bills 49 Bengals 31

Lions 19 Cowboys 35

Redskins 19 Titans 16

Cardinals 13 Chiefs 31

Packers 31 Vikings 3

Texans 27 Jets 30

Raiders 3 Steelers 35

Ravens 37 Panthers 13

Browns 20 Jaguars 24

Falcons 34 Rams 17

Seahawks 19 Saints 34

Buccaneers 21 49ers 0

Colts 28 Patriots 31

Giants 17 Eagles 27

Broncos 14 Chargers 35