It all tees off at Pinehurst on Thursday and here’s where you should put your precious few quid for the second Major of the year.
Completely swamped with all the pre-World Cup excitement, the second Major of the year in golf is coming in under the radar. However, as the US Open is always one of the best, and probably the toughest, golf tournament of the year, you should try and make time to catch the goings on at Pinehurst this weekend.
The best way to ensure you have a real interest in the event is to have a few quid on the outcome and the betting market is wide open this week.
The big story going in is Phil Mickelson. Lefty has never managed to land his national open and he will turn 44 on Monday, so time is definitely running out for him to fill in this blank on his CV. The added wrinkle of an ongoing investigation into his finances by the FBI means all eyes will be on Phil to see if he can one better than last year, when he was runner up to Justin Rose.
Sadly for Phil, his game is in a bit of a mess right now. No longer a monster off the tee (ranked 75th in driving distance) Mickelson is without a top 10 finish all year. He managed an 11th last week in the St Jude Classic but at 16/1, we don’t think there will be a fairytale story come Sunday night.
Another American golf fan hero, Bubba Watson, is a much more interesting prospect at the same price. His Masters win, tipped by our good selves before the event, was fantastic and the conditions at Pinehurst this week could suit the sometimes wayward Watson.
Unlike most US Open set ups, the fairways are wide at Pinehurst and the rough is not quite as severe. The track is long (7,500 yards, Par 70) but with thunderstorms scheduled to hit the course all through the event, the course should be softer than normal and the greens should be more receptive. All this plays into Bubba’s hands and he was third last time out at Memorial. We’re not nearly as confident in Watson as we were pre-Masters but this is his best shot to win a US Open.
Other home based players like Matt Kuchar (25/1) and Jason Duffner (50/1) can’t be ignored but the course should be ideal for perennial contender Dustin Johnson. Remarkably consistent this year, bar his missed cut at the Masters, I’m convinced Johnson will win a US Open one day and at 33/1 he looks well priced.
When it comes to long shots, I’m investing a few bob each-way on Paul Casey. The English man has finally rediscovered the form that made him a top 10 player in the world a while back and the Pinehurst set-up is probably the kindest US Open course he will ever play. His relative shortness off the tee shouldn’t kill him here and he has the composure if he gets into the hunt. At 80/1, the each-way bet looks value.
The only even bigger priced golfer I like is JB Holmes. At 100/1, Holmes is monstrous off the tee (305 yards, ranked fifth on Tour) and he won a similar type event at Wells Fargo last month. I wouldn’t go big but a few Euro each way might pay off.
The sharp-eyed among you will have noticed one person’s name has been notable by its absence so far; Rory McIlroy. And that is because I’m backing the favourite (12/1) to pick up his second US Open this weekend. Okay, lumping on the favourite is rarely a great idea in golf but the Irish golfer is an exceptional exception.
Yet to win on the PGA Tour this season, McIlroy has six top 10s and despite what you might have seen on Twitter, he was playing just as well before, as well as since, his recent very public split from his fiancé.
What has undone Rory in getting into the winner’s enclosure this season has been his annoying habit of having one bad round in four. A 74 in the final round at the Honda Classic saw him finish second. A 74 in the third round of the Houston Open meant a seventh place. A 77 on Friday scuppered his Masters shot but he got back to eighth. Poor rounds on the Friday at Wells Fargo, the Players and Memorial probably robbed him off three wins too.
His victory in the European PGA at Wentworth in May was consistent, and frequently brilliant, and I see no reason why he can’t do it again this week.
Even if he has a minor bad round (around a 72 or 73) at some stage, he has the gifts to bring it back, as we saw with his stunning final round 66 to pip Shane Lowry at Wentworth. And, if the weather forecast comes to pass, it will suit him. His 2011 US Open win was played in very wet conditions.
Huge off the tee and brave enough to take on the treacherous greens at Pinehurst regardless of the conditions I see Rory dominating the back pages again come Monday morning.
