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11th June 2014
08:56pm BST

Unlike most US Open set ups, the fairways are wide at Pinehurst and the rough is not quite as severe. The track is long (7,500 yards, Par 70) but with thunderstorms scheduled to hit the course all through the event, the course should be softer than normal and the greens should be more receptive. All this plays into Bubba’s hands and he was third last time out at Memorial. We’re not nearly as confident in Watson as we were pre-Masters but this is his best shot to win a US Open.
Other home based players like Matt Kuchar (25/1) and Jason Duffner (50/1) can’t be ignored but the course should be ideal for perennial contender Dustin Johnson. Remarkably consistent this year, bar his missed cut at the Masters, I’m convinced Johnson will win a US Open one day and at 33/1 he looks well priced.
When it comes to long shots, I’m investing a few bob each-way on Paul Casey. The English man has finally rediscovered the form that made him a top 10 player in the world a while back and the Pinehurst set-up is probably the kindest US Open course he will ever play. His relative shortness off the tee shouldn’t kill him here and he has the composure if he gets into the hunt. At 80/1, the each-way bet looks value.
The only even bigger priced golfer I like is JB Holmes. At 100/1, Holmes is monstrous off the tee (305 yards, ranked fifth on Tour) and he won a similar type event at Wells Fargo last month. I wouldn't go big but a few Euro each way might pay off.
The sharp-eyed among you will have noticed one person’s name has been notable by its absence so far; Rory McIlroy. And that is because I’m backing the favourite (12/1) to pick up his second US Open this weekend. Okay, lumping on the favourite is rarely a great idea in golf but the Irish golfer is an exceptional exception.
Yet to win on the PGA Tour this season, McIlroy has six top 10s and despite what you might have seen on Twitter, he was playing just as well before, as well as since, his recent very public split from his fiancé.
What has undone Rory in getting into the winner’s enclosure this season has been his annoying habit of having one bad round in four. A 74 in the final round at the Honda Classic saw him finish second. A 74 in the third round of the Houston Open meant a seventh place. A 77 on Friday scuppered his Masters shot but he got back to eighth. Poor rounds on the Friday at Wells Fargo, the Players and Memorial probably robbed him off three wins too.
His victory in the European PGA at Wentworth in May was consistent, and frequently brilliant, and I see no reason why he can’t do it again this week.
Even if he has a minor bad round (around a 72 or 73) at some stage, he has the gifts to bring it back, as we saw with his stunning final round 66 to pip Shane Lowry at Wentworth. And, if the weather forecast comes to pass, it will suit him. His 2011 US Open win was played in very wet conditions.
Huge off the tee and brave enough to take on the treacherous greens at Pinehurst regardless of the conditions I see Rory dominating the back pages again come Monday morning.


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