Burning Issue: Do the Dubs deserve to be All-Ireland favourites?

Thanks to their blistering start to the league, the Dubs have been installed as favourites to win another All-Ireland title this year. But is that favouritism justified this early? Two JOEs argue the case.

---

Declan Whooley says... First of all, let me state that I am not a Dub, so the following argument is without any hint of emotion and based purely on form and past experience. The bookies have installed Dubs as favourites to land Sam Maguire for 2013, and at the moment they are full value for their low price.

An obvious point needs to be quickly addressed. We are still only in March, so there are no prizes for setting the world alight at this early part of the season. Though by the same token, the obituaries currently being written for Kerry are a little-over-the-top if applying the same logic, since it is “just the league”.

I would still imagine that Eamonn Fitzmaurice would prefer to be in Jim Gavin’s shoes in terms of results if he were to be totally honest.

There is nothing that gives teams right around the country a kick up the arse than seeing a Dublin team in blazing form and installed as favourites, something Dublin teams have had to deal with for quite a while now. But the short odds are there for good reason.

If we are to be generous, there are seven teams that have genuine hopes of landing Sam next September. Kildare look to be just a couple of players short of what it takes, while as good as Tyrone have looked thus far with an injection of new faces, 2013 could be a year too early for Mickey Harte’s young side.

That leaves five teams in the mix, with Mayo the outsiders in the leading pack, with no shortage of revenge on the mind after their disastrous start to the 2012 decider.

The remaining four sides are the champions for the last four seasons, with Dublin the shortest odds at 3/1 followed by the current champions Donegal at 7/2, and Munster rivals Cork and Kerry available at 9/2.

Basically what the bookies are saying is that there is very, very little to choose between four teams, with the boys in blue slightly ahead based on early season form. As much as Gavin will attempt to dampen the hype and lower expectations, it is difficult to argue with that.

The new head honcho couldn’t have asked for a better start to the year. He has brought new faces to the backroom team, most notably Bernard Dunne, Ciaran Kilkenny has come back from Australia and they put in a number of impressive performances in the O’Byrne Cup, eventually losing to Kildare in the final after extra-time. All good signs ahead of the National League.

After four games so far in the league, they are looking down on their rivals in Division 1. You could argue about the level of performances they have faced in some cases, but with the games to be won, they have done so in style.

They have averaged more than 1-16 a game with Bernard Brogan in particular looking like he is returning to the kind of form that saw him named Player of the Year in 2010. They had 10 points to spare away to Kerry (very few teams do that in the Kingdom, regardless of form) and the likes of Johnny Cooper, Jack McCaffrey, Declan O’Mahony and Paddy Andrews are putting their hands up for championship positions. And it goes without saying that Ciaran Kilkenny is going to be a fixture on this team for years to come. Australia’s loss is one huge gain for Dublin GAA.

No one in the capital will be too upset if their side doesn’t win the League, but in recent years, the winners have come from the top sides. In the past seven years, Cork (3), Kerry (2) and Donegal have won the competition – Derry being the other – and while it doesn’t necessarily replicate form in the championship, it is about building momentum.

For those that scoff at the sight of the Dubs as short odds for Sam, there is little to choose between the aforementioned counties and as the season continues, these teams will jockey for position.

Backboned by the team that took the ultimate honours in 2011 with some exciting talent coming through, their early form is a justifiable reason to have them slightly ahead of the pack for now. But it is a long, long road to September.

---

Conor Heneghan says... On the basis of what we've seen so far, it’s hard to argue with Dublin’s position as 3/1 favourites to win a second All-Ireland title in three years this year. But I'm going to try and do so anyway.

If Jim Gavin is feeling any pressure after taking over from Pat Gilroy he’s certainly not showing it as the Dubs have blitzed all comers in the league so far, winning their four games by a combined total of 33 points and scoring 8-63 in the process. That works out at an average of just under 22 points per game against some of the top sides in the country; impressive numbers in any man’s language.

Ciaran Kilkenny is showing no ill-effects after returning from his ill-fated Australia experiment, new players have been introduced and have impressed and in Bernard Brogan they have by far and away the outstanding player of the league so far. So there are a helluva lot of positives and Gavin is entitled to be content with his lot at the moment.

He’ll also know, however, that All-Irelands aren’t won in March and although league form is important – winning and losing are easy habits to fall into – it’s not the be all and end all.

Take Cork, for example. The Rebels have won the league for the last three years running but only managed to win Sam once during that time, an All-Ireland title in 2010 that, a little bit harshly perhaps, has been described as the handiest victory of the last decade or so.

While that isn’t necessarily an endorsement of holding back a little in the league, it does indicate that certain teams do adopt that approach and a lot of them aren’t shy about saying it either.

Donegal did it last season and appear to be doing the same this time around, Cork aren’t as hell-bent on winning it this year as they have been in the past, Mayo are plodding along so far and the Kerry you’ll see in the summer will be a world away from the mess they’re in at the moment.

Some teams need a good league campaign for various different reasons and with a new man in charge, a lot of Dublin players will have wanted to stake a claim for a permanent place further down the line and quite a few of them have done that already.

Other teams, like Donegal no doubt, are tailoring their training with a view to peaking in the summertime and it is that, rather than anything Dublin have or haven’t done to date, that would have me questioning whether they deserve to be hot favourites at such an early stage.

There’s nothing to say that Dublin can’t or won’t maintain their current form come the Championship and although it’s a very hypothetical theory, they could feasibly win another Leinster this year and arrive in the All-Ireland quarter-finals with only one serious Championship test under their belts (Kildare in a likely Leinster semi-final) and will be pitted against teams more battle-hardened than they are (for example, the loser of the Donegal v Tyrone game in Ulster should they successfully negotiate a path through the qualifiers).

There’s no doubting that Dublin are amongst the top three contenders for the All-Ireland title this year and there’s a lot for their followers to be optimistic about, but hype has been the downfall of a few Dublin teams in the past and there’s no point getting carried away with what might be yet to come after four league games.

Luckily for the Dubs, in Jim Gavin they appear to have a man who will keep their feet firmly planted on the ground.