By Jack Peat
Climate models give it a 90 per cent chance of happening
Scientists say an ‘El Niño’ weather event could bring the hottest day that the world has ever seen this year.
After several years of concerningly high temperatures, the record books could be re-written yet again in the coming months due to a phenomenon that takes place in the central Pacific Ocean.
Redistribution of heat into the ocean drives weather patterns across the Pacific and around the globe – and scientists say ocean temperatures have been on the rise since March.
The last El Niño event occurred in 2018-2019 on a smaller scale. The one prior to that was 2016 which saw a strong event take place and coincided with the hottest year on record globally.
Current climate models suggest that there is a 62 percent chance of an El Niño by July, and a 90 percent chance of it developing by the end of the year. It could lead to higher global temperatures, including the highest temperatures ever recorded.
There is about 60% chance for the onset of #ElNino during May-July, rising to 70-80% during July- Sept.#ElNiño affects weather and climate patterns in many parts of the world and is typically associated with higher global temperatures.
🔗https://t.co/XfRP2CaH9C pic.twitter.com/5TCUrV0nkC— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) May 3, 2023
2022 saw Ireland’s highest temperatures for over 100 years
Last year, Phoenix Park in Dublin recorded the highest temperature since its weather station opened in the early 1800s, reaching 33.0°C on July 18. It was the hottest day ever recorded in the capital.
It was also the 2nd highest temperature ever on record for Ireland, being 0.3°C below the all-time record of 33.3°C observed at Kilkenny Castle on Sun June 26, 1887.
Keith Lambkin, Head of Met Éireann’s Climate Services Division said last year: “Due to climate change, we are expecting to see heatwaves become longer, more frequent and intense than in the past. This increase in heat, increases the odds of temperature records being broken.”
“The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records,” warned WMO chief Petteri Taalas. “The world should prepare for the development of El Niño.”
