After defeat to the Wallabies last weekend, Ireland only have to try and beat the All-Blacks for the first time ever on Sunday. Can they do it? Two JOEs enter the debate?
Sean Nolan says… Blind hope. Misplaced faith. A one in a million shot. Yep, I’m going for Ireland on Sunday.
Ireland against the All Blacks is a strange old fixture. Without fail, you look forward to it, as the men in black are the most exciting team in world rugby simply because they are so good. But a part of you, and it can be a large part of you, also dreads the game as you suspect a horrific shellacking is on the way.
Sadly, usually, the latter fear comes to pass. The numbers are well worn at this stage. Twenty seven games, 26 defeats, one draw. Double-digit defeats, at home, even against our strongest sides are the norm, so why should Sunday be different?
Well, for one, the Irish team simply cannot play as badly as they did against Australia. Not one player played up to their potential against the Wallabies, and theories for that have been bouncing around all week, from over training to over thinking.
Whatever the issue, we trust Joe Schmidt, his backroom team and the senior players to sort it out this week and we expect to see a much more cohesive Irish team display on Sunday.
Then there’s New Zealand. Unbeaten this year in case you hadn’t heard for the millionth time, they are at the end of a long and bruising season. Last year, they fell in their final game in the Northern Hemisphere, and if any end-of-term frivolity has invaded their camp, which it has to have to some degree, then we might have a real shot. The absence of Dan Carter is big too, even with the excellence of Aaron Cruden.
But, cliché alert, eliminating the errors and raising the intensity won’t be enough to halt the awesome All Blacks, even if they turn up a shade of very dark grey instead. What will also be needed is some magic, quite a bit of magic in fact.
Where can that come from? Well, we’d still back Tommy Bowe to get a try against any Test defence in the world while Sean O’Brien is another who can hurt New Zealand, if the opportunity presents itself.
But we are really pinning our hopes on one last epic showing from Brian O’Driscoll. Since he announced he was giving it one more year, he has constantly referred to this game as one he was targeting. He has tried and failed many times to gain a win against the All Blacks for Ireland and the Lions and he has said it is one trophy he really wants to claim before retirement.
This is his last shot, and the greats in all sports tend to rise to the occasion. And this match is an occasion, and a very big one for the man they call BOD. He has yet to hit his very best so far this season but if he is ever to do it, it will be when faced with a Haka.
He owes these lads from the southern hemisphere a beating. I’m backing him to do it.
Conor Heneghan says… Sorry to burst the bubble of all the rugby optimists out there but there is just no way I can see Ireland beating the All-Blacks this weekend. Yes, sport can be romantic and wildly unpredictable at times but in most cases results are dictated by logic and logic insists that the only possible result is an away victory.
I don’t want to get all negative about the Irish team here because my opinion is almost entirely based on the strength of the opposition rather than what we might bring to the table.
Ireland were bad against a possibly hungover Wallabies outfit last weekend but the reaction in a lot of places was a little over the top. It was a disjointed performance riddled with errors and a repeat would see us being put to the sword in the manner of Hamilton in June of last year when Steve Hansen’s men went to town and put up 60 unanswered points in a ruthless display.
But Ireland can and will get better and as patronising as it can be when you lose, I expect words like ‘brave’ and ‘defiant’ may well be used in the aftermath of a much improved performance, albeit a much improved performance that will still end in defeat.
Why so glum and defeatist you ask? Well, as Rafa Benitez might say, let’s look at the ‘facts’.
Ireland have lost 26 out of 27 matches against the All-Blacks and the only time they didn’t lose was a 10-10 draw at the old Lansdowne Road in 1973. We’ve gone close on their turf a few times in recent years – most notably when robbed in a 22-19 defeat in Christchurch last year – but worryingly, our home record leaves a lot to be desired, with the All Blacks winning by an average margin of 27 points on their last five visits to Dublin.
History is irrelevant you say? In this case I don’t think it is because the lack of a victory over the All-Blacks is a quite obvious weight around our shoulders but fine, let’s examine more recent statistics.
In 2013, following an impressive victory over Wales on the opening day of the Six Nations, Ireland have lost four games out of eight (including games against Scotland and Italy) drawn one (France) and won three, with the three victories coming against USA, Canada and Samoa, hardly giants of the game by any stretch of the imagination.
The All-Blacks, meanwhile, have won all 13 of their encounters to date, including six out of six in the Rugby Championship, where their average winning margin was slightly over 14 points. For 17 straight Tests the All Blacks have scored at least two tries while scoring at least 23 points and in total they’ve scored 48 tries at a rate of 4-1 per match. Yikes!
While it would be great to see Ireland deny the All-Blacks a perfect year, great to see us finally get the New Zealand monkey off our backs and great to see Brian O’Driscoll win in his final game against them, it’s nearly impossible to foresee.
The All-Blacks are purring at the moment and we’re set to be the latest victims left trailing in their wake.
Let’s just hope it doesn’t get ugly.
