Can Joe Schmidt’s men make it three out of three?
Conor Heneghan says: Before the positivity, a word of caution. In his Irish Times column this week, former Leinster coach Matt Williams wrote that the clash with Australia on Saturday is Ireland’s most important game in ten years.
I don’t happen to agree and one could chalk it down as a hyperbolic comment from a man not unaccustomed to hyperbole but Williams made the point that if Ireland don’t win, they are in danger of becoming a team capable of beating the big sides on one-off occasions when the conditions suit them.
Harsh? Not really. We might be coming off the back of a successful Six Nations campaign earlier in the year but the perception of a team in global terms is based on how they perform against the big three in the southern hemisphere and Ireland have tended to do so in fits and starts in recent years.
The current crop have the ability to change that perception and it will be interesting to see how we’re judged come the end of the World Cup next year as opposed to how we’re judged now. A win over the Wallabies is the perfect way to set us off on the right track.
Or maybe the perception of us is changing already. Before the start of the November series, a lot of reasoned observers felt that wins against both South Africa and Australia were beyond Joe Schmidt’s (below) men but now it is a more than realistic possibility and a lot of that is down to Schmidt himself.
With Schmidt in charge, it seems that virtually anything is possible and although I’m loath to get carried away and say we’re going to win the World Cup, having Schmidt in charge is hugely reassuring.
The man demands very high standards and the great thing about the win over South Africa is while it was great for morale to take such a high-profile scalp, there is oceans of room for improvement.
According to the great Gerry Thornley, Schmidt complimented Conor Murray on his kick through for Tommy Bowe’s try but also chastised him for not landing it directly into Bowe’s hands. A great story, but also an insight into the way the man works.
And let’s be honest, South Africa didn’t play particularly well but until fairly late on in the second half they were right in the mix.
Furthermore, how good were Ireland, really? Yes there were some standout individual performances and promising combinations but the lineout and scrum were shaky to say the least and it was far from perfect overall, something that Schmidt won’t have been shy to tell the squad this week.
He’ll also have his homework done. The Australian team will be a little different from the one that gave us a good going over this time last year but they’re still good and have plenty of experience.
On paper, the South African pack appears a little more intimidating and some Aussies would probably prefer Genia and Cooper to Phipps and Foley at half-back but the threat posed by Folau and Ashley-Cooper (below) in the back three needs little elaboration and there aren’t many identifiable weaknesses.
The Wallabies also have a very good coach in Michael Cheika who knows a lot about the players he’ll be coming up against so there are certainly reasons for the Aussies to be confident, which is their natural default setting most of the time in any case.
That said, there’s a feel-good factor surrounding the Irish rugby team at the moment and I’ve a feeling that it will still be lingering at the Aviva come Saturday evening.
And then we can start to dream about what’s to come further down the road.
Alan Loughnane says: Unfortunately no, I don’t think that Ireland will defeat the Wallabies on Saturday and I believe we will probably suffer a narrow loss. I do think Ireland will produce a good performance but I think we will just fall short of making our first clean sweep in the November internationals since 2006.
Ireland go into the game riding high on the crest of a wave of optimism after a stunning victory over South Africa and an effective performance and win over Georgia. We rose to third in the IRB rankings following our victory over the former and other results going our way.
Australia lost to France last time out but despite popular belief, France are not the disjointed side that played in the Six Nations this year. France are pulling themselves together under Saint André and had some great moments in the match, so there was no shame in Australia losing to Les Bleus.
The week before, the Wallabies defeated Wales in the Millennium Stadium and at times they made Wales look very ordinary.
The Wallabies have made three changes to the team that beat Wales with Matt Toomua (above) coming in at centre, Henry Speight starting on the wing and Luke Jones taking his place at blindside flanker.
The addition of Toomua is bad news for Ireland as the converted fly-half is a quality ball player. He offers Australia a second kicking option in open play and has the creative vision of a number ten, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of bashing the ball up when needs be so Gordon D’Arcy can expect to be tested early on.
Ireland, up to now, haven’t exactly set the world alight with attacking flair and have relied more on hard work and honesty in defence. Against South Africa, they shut down the Springbok attack. But that is a much easier task to accomplish than shutting down this dangerous Wallaby backline.
Israel Folau (below) is the most potent attacking weapon in world rugby right now. Any stray kicks will be gobbled up by his hungry hands and Ireland will be on the back foot straight away. He always beats the first man when returning kicks, so Ireland will need to ensure they have a strong chase and that the chasing line doesn’t have any chinks in it.
It must be noted though that Folau isn’t the most accomplished kicker in the world and some of his clearances in The Rugby Championship were quite poor. If Sexton can pick out the corners and turn the athletic full-back, the chasers will be able to put good pressure on him and hopefully force him into a rushed clearance.
At outside centre, Tevita Kuridrani is 6ft 5ins and 16 stone of beef and he is key to Australia’s attack. He powered through Alun-Wyn Jones and Alex Cuthbert in Cardiff to score a great try under the posts. He is not just big, he has a wicked step and a great turn of pace that makes him a nightmare to get to ground.
Robbie Henshaw will be up against a different animal to what he faced against South Africa. Jean de Villiers is a clever operator but he doesn’t have the raw strength and pace that the Australian centre has at his disposal.
Australia are going to score tries on Saturday, and it will be up to Ireland to score a few of their own if they want to win. The Irish have been fantastic and disciplined in defence this autumn so far and they will have to be again on Saturday.
But I still think Australia will run in a couple of tries; do Ireland have the attacking nous to score three or four of their own? On present viewing I don’t think they do against top quality opposition.
Australia have been at sixes and sevens in defence at times in the last couple of games but a lot of work on this area has been going on recently by coach Michael Cheika. They will be much more solid when the opposition have the ball on Saturday.
For the simple reason that I think Australia will get easier tries than Ireland, I’m going for an Aussie win.
Australia by 3-8 points.
