We look ahead to the Semi-Finals of the Heineken Cup between Leinster and Clermont Auvergne and Edinburgh and Ulster and what you should watch out for.
The 16th man
As Munster have shown over the years having good fans can literally get you over the line in the Heineken Cup.
Dublin is bracing itself for a northern invasion as at least 30,000 Ulster fans will descend on the Aviva Stadium Saturday night.
Ulster always bring colour and noise when they travel en masse and this may be amplified as they play on the site of their Heineken Cup victory in 1999. For all the chatter of changes in line ups and Brian McLaughlin leaving, the single biggest factor that will influence this match will be the Ulster fans who will totally outnumber the Edinburgh fans.
Meanwhile across the sea in Bordeaux Leinster have the boon of not playing in the imposing atmosphere of the Stade Marcel Michelin.
That may give Leinster a slight psychological lift and if Joe Schmidt’s men can get the first score, that could silence the home fans who are not in their “real” home stadium.
Jekyll or Hyde?
Edinburgh have been really, really poor in the RaboDirect Pro 12 and live second from bottom.
Yet in the Heineken Cup they have been able to cut loose. Ulster cannot – JOE repeats – cannot underestimate this side.
Michael Bradley has put all his eggs in the Heineken Cup basket and it has paid off. They beat the traditional powerhouse of the tournament in Toulouse in the last round and although Ulster are the stronger side on paper they can’t take this match for granted and Andrew Trimble, Stephen Ferris and Ulster’s other explosive players will need to be at their best.
Expect Edinburgh to be good, open and swashbuckling this weekend and this to be a high scoring match.
If Ulster’s marquee players show up they should win though.
The Scrum
Leinster can play on the fly and have more variation and different patterns in their play than any other in Europe. Clermont Auvergne are maybe a tiny bit more athletic and explosive, but more direct.
This may come down to the scrum. Mike Ross and Cian Healy will need to be at their best against a monstrous Clermont pack.
The Ref
Wayne Barnes is in charge of the Leinster match. Recently, after some poor performances in the Heineken Cup, he was dropped from the elite nine man panel of international rugby referees for some poor performances in the Six Nations, he needs a good game in a high profile match.
In past matches Barnes had a tendency to go with the home team on decisions.
In a match where both sides are evens with some bookmakers the win, this is pivotal.
If Leinster can take advantage of most the decisions that go their way, they could win.
If all the decisions go Clermont’s way, they “will” win.
The wildcards
Brian O’Driscoll is back for Leinster as Shane Horgan told JOE during the week, his mere presence on the pitch changes the way oppositions’ approach the game.
But is he up to playing this high a standard so soon?
The talented young Paddy Jackson replaces an out-of-sorts Ian Humphreys at outhalf. He only has a handful of Heineken Cup appearances.
Again is this soon for him?
Either way the unknowns this weekend makes it another tasty weekend of rugby.
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