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12th Oct 2014

Fourth and Longshot; JOE’s NFL bets Week 6

Once again we curse Tom Brady, and look to some big favourites to get us over the line this week.

JOE

Once again we curse Tom Brady, and look to some big favourites to get us over the line this week.

Last week, we began by bemoaning Tom Brady and the Patriots for their capitualtion to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, a defeat that wrecked our accumulator at the final hurdle.

Perhaps spurred on by anger, we decided to back the Bengals to do the stuttering Patriots and with the first two legs of our treble home (thanks to the Giants and the Chargers) we were looking forward to watching Brady and Co suffer on Monday night.

Of course, the Pats found some of their old magic, Brady threw for 292 yards and they crushed the Bengals 43-17.

Suitably chastened, we are going to avoid the Patriots for a few weeks as we simply can’t pick the week when they will be in form and the week when they will be brutal. As we seem to have our eye in on other teams at this stage of the season (our points bet came in last week) we will go with an ‘ignore the Pats’ strategy and see how that works for us.

As always, all our odds are courtesy of Ladbrokes.

This week’s treble

Denver Broncos (-9) to beat the New York Jets, 20/21

San Diego Chargers (-7) to beat the Oakland Raiders, 10/11

Atlanta Falcons (-3) to beat the Chicago Bears, 20/23

A tidy treble that returns at around 6/1, and with the cursed Pats excluded, it has to have a great shot. It is hard to express how much better the Broncos are than the Jets but for our money, it is more than nine points.

Apart from the Jets, and the Jags, the Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL, and we expect Phillip Rivers to pick them apart on Sunday with ease.

The last leg, as always, is the trickiest one. Atlanta are miles better at home than on the road and while the Bears have actually done okay on their travels, we think they are still too leaky to cope with Matt Ryan’s mob.

Total points bet of the week

Carolina Panthers v Cincinnati Bengals, Over 43.5, 10/11

There are a lot of high voltage players on the field in this game, even if AJ Green, the Bengals best receiver, is probably going to miss out. From Panthers QB Cam Newton to Benglas running back Giovani Bernard, this game has potential to be both close and reasonably high-scoring. We don’t expect it to be a scorefest, but both these squads should be capable of getting to 22 or more each. That will do us.
 
Upset pick

New York Giants (+3) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, 5/6

The Giants are really clicking now and Eli Manning’s pass complettion rate is actually better than Andrew Luck’s so far this season. The poor throws and interceptions are gone as the offensive scheme put in place in the off season is finally working. The Eagles are pretty nifty on offense themselves, but defensively they can be got at, conceding 26.4 points per game.

Getting a win in the City of Brotherly Love is never easy, but the G Men could do it on Sunday.

Topics:

NFL,US Sports