The biggest race of the year goes to post on Saturday. Here’s some advice on how not to pick a winner from the field of forty from bitter, bitter experience.
First run in 1839, the Grand National is THE big horse race of the year. Cheltenham may be the sport’s championships, and other races like the Derby and the Guineas are big days, but nothing comes close to the National.
From office sweepstakes to 50 cent EW bets, virtually everyone in the country will be backing a horse to finish the four mile, three-and-a-half furlong marathon and we’re here to try and help you pick the winner in a few easy steps.
Trends
While some stats are vital to narrowing your chances (horses between the ages of 9 and 11 have won the last eight) others are best avoided. The last eight winners also carried between 10-3 and 11-6 and looking at the current field of 44 that covers 33 horses. You might as well pick a number out of a hat.
For what it is worth, the last eight horses I picked in the race lost, which for me is the only trend I want to stop this year.
Trainers
As the Grand National has changed over the years, with easier fences and a slightly shorter distance, the quality of horse entering the race has gone up and up. That means that the very best trainers in the game should be increasingly likely to win the big one too. But the last 10 runnings of the race have produced success for 10 different trainers.
Yes some big names are in there, like Willie Mullins in 2005, Jonjo O’Neill in 2010 and Paul Nicholls in 2012 but going for a well-known yard is no guarantee of picking the winner in the National.
Sorry.
Jockeys
Like the trainers, the jockey’s winners list is a who’s who of the sport. Ruby Walsh (2005), AP McCoy (2010) and Jason Maguire (2011) have all landed the big one, but there have been 10 different winning jocks over the last decade. By all means pick your favourite, but chances are they won’t win either.
Colour
They don’t list the horse’s colour in the form guide, an oversight that still upsets many people. My granny, God rest her, would only back grey horses, and finding out which horses were that colour back in the day involved standing in the bookies and watching them on BBC’s coverage of the parade ring. Thankfully, these days it is a bit easier to find out your horse’s colour but backing greys in the National is a quick way to the poorhouse.
Only four winners of the race have been grey, and one of those was the same horse twice, The Lamb in 1868 and 1871. Nicolaus Silver won in 1961 and Neptune Collonges won it two years ago. In short, whatever you do, don’t back a grey horse, no matter how pretty it looks in the parade ring.
Silks
Thanks to the proliferation of colour pullouts in the papers, the colours the jockeys will wear will be clear for all to see. We have heard many stories of folks picking the winner because the race silks matched their shoes, or curtains, or were the same as their favourite football team but we remain to be convinced this system works.
Names
Limerick people will invest heavily in Colbert Station this year, lads called William will be supporting Swing Bill and people with large feet might stick a few bob on Big Shu. Of all races, the National produces more sentimental, non-form based bets than any other race. In fairness, we know of one Health and Safety inspector who collected when Comply Or Die won in 2008 but picking a horse based on your job/birthday/name of a fella you lived next door to once will almost certainly spell disaster.
Betpack won’t be beaten for price on this year’s National as they are Top Price All Runners from 10am on Saturday & paying 5 Places.
