One of the highlights of the Flat season kicks off tomorrow at Epsom. Here’s Paddy Power’s preview of the two big ones, the Oaks and Derby.
Aidan O’Brien looks to hold all the aces in both races as Maybe and Camelot are the ante-post favourites in Paddy Power’s online betting. O’Brien could have up to six runners in the Oaks on Friday with market-leader Maybe and Kissed the pick of his sextet.
Maybe went to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket an unbeaten and well-backed (13/8f) filly before being upstaged by stable-mate and 25/1 outsider Homecoming Queen on the rain-softened Newmarket turf.
But doubts about her stamina over the 1m 4f test remain and top National Hunt jockey Ruby Walsh for one is not convinced she’ll last the trip.
“I don’t think she’ll stay 1m 4f around Epsom. I really don’t,” Ruby told Paddy Power’s Blog team on Thursday.
And plenty are looking outside Maybe for a bit more value. Kissed has been impressive on her two wins to date, with the latest coming at Navan over 1m 2f, although in lesser company than Friday’s Group 1 contest.
Then there’s The Fugue, fourth behind Maybe in the 1000 Guineas earlier in May. She was an impressive winner of the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York over 1m 2f, beating O’Brien’s Twirl in the process.
There should be no stamina doubts about either Kissed or The Fugue if the petrol tank starts flashing red for Maybe in the final furlongs.
Hot Camelot
If Walsh is cool on O’Brien’s Oaks favourite then he is firmly in Camelot’s camp for Derby glory on Saturday afternoon.
This unbeaten classy colt has already bagged the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket under Aidan’s son Joseph and is rumoured to be among Ballydoyle’s best.
Camelot goes into Saturday’s contest a red-hot odds-on favourite but has a few stats to overcome if his supporters are to draw.
The last odds-on shot to win the Derby was the infamous Shergar (10/11f) in 1981 who won by 10 lengths.
But since his biggest winning margin of victory three other odds-on favourites El Gran Senor (1984), Tenby (1993) and Entrepreneur (1997) were beaten.
Bonfire is second-best in the betting after an impressive win in the Dante Stakes at York. His stamina is assured but doubts remain as to how he will handle the preliminaries in front of a possible crowd close to 250,000 and the early hustle and bustle.
While Bonfire might be able to exploit the gaps in the smallest Derby field in 40 odd years with just nine set to go to post, this is as likely to play to Camelot’s strengths as well as he should be delivered with a customary late run.
The Lingfield Derby trial winner Main Sequence has decent credentials and would be shorter in the betting if trained by Henry Cecil rather than Derby debutant David Lanigan.
Mickdaam didn’t stand out on his Chester Vase win in soft ground and needs to improve to be in the shake-up. For Ruby, though, it’s a done deal.
“I don’t think Camelot will face any traffic problems that he can’t overcome and if I was a Flat jockey I’d love to be riding him in the Derby.”
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