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29th Jun 2018

World Cup 2018: The last 16 games ranked in order of excitement

Carl Kinsella

If you think the tournament’s been great so far, just wait for what’s still to come.

Here’s how we think the ties in the first knockout stage rank in order of excitement and how we think they’re going to play out…

1. Argentina vs France

“But Marge, that little guy hasn’t done anything yet. Look at him! He’s gonna do something. And you know it’s gonna be good!”

A quote that could apply to Leo Messi, Sergio Aguero, Paulo Dybala, Sergio Aguero, Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe, or any number of the superstars that these two heavyweights share.

Argentina vs France is a match that would make sense as a World Cup final, let alone a last 16 game — but right now, neither of these sides are firing on all cylinders. Or any cylinders.

The hope is that these two sides will bring the best out of each other, and that Messi will improve upon the few sparks of special quality that he showed in the 2-1 win over Nigeria. Either way, this game is heavy with narrative. Either Messi is going home without a World Cup medal once again, or arguably the World Cup’s most talented squad is exiting the tournament without ever even getting out of first gear.

Pride is on the line for both sides. Great football is the answer.

Prediction: Argentina to finally play well, but France to win.

2. Colombia vs England

Three games in and we still don’t have a full sense of what either Colombia or England can do. Colombia’s star man James Rodriguez has missed most of the tournament so far, and the one game he did feature prominently in was a 3-0 rout of Poland, which was up there among the best performances of the group stage. Otherwise, Colombia have looked a bit stymied.

Whether or not the top scorer of the 2014 World Cup plays against England will make all the difference.

Somehow, we also still don’t fully know what England are capable of. They looked commanding against both Tunisia and Panama and played their second-string against Belgium. Even still, their good results have come against notably weak opposition. You can always back their front line to threaten, but whether their defence can handle Quintero, Cuadrado, Falcao and the main man James remains to be seen.

Either way, it should be a very open game of football, and hopefully a goalfest.

Prediction: England to be scared throughout, but to still win in the end.

3. Brazil vs Mexico

The archetypal Samba Soccer showdown — but not really. Two teams with a rich history of firework-show football, neither of whom are in their creative pomp as things stand. Mexico are set up to counter-attack, a strategy that worked very well against Germany but not at all against Sweden.

Brazil, on the other hand, have all the ingredients of a devastating force of football, but with Neymar yet to kick into gear, their performances have been workmanlike. Magic from Phillipe Coutinho has lit the Selecao up at certain moments, but more consistency is needed from their attackers if Brazil are even to remind us of their best.

A good start would be to replace the ineffectual Willian with Bobby Firmino or Douglas Costa. If Brazil can unlock the Mexican defence early then they should breeze through.

Prediction: Brazil to finally come into their own and win comfortably.

4. Belgium vs Japan

One of the more lopsided last 16 draws. Japan couldn’t beat a weak Poland side when it mattered most, and their best result came against a team that was down to 10 men after just four minutes. They didn’t look the better side against Senegal, and though they haven’t been bad, Belgium have been one of the tournament’s strongest performers.

This game will be exciting simply because it will be informative to see how KDB, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku flourish in the knockout stages. They need to put the the Blue Samurais to the sword if they want to prove that they’re no longer just dark horses.

Prediction: Belgium to win big.

5. Portugal vs Uruguay

Even though there’ll be an abundance of talent on the field in Edinson Cavani, Luis Suarez and Cristiano Ronaldo to name just a few, this game will be all about the men in the dugout. Fernando Santos and Oscar Tabarez are typical pragmatists, but unlike the “pragmatists” of the English Premier League, they actually do it right. Tabarez has led Uruguay to the 2010 World Cup semi-finals and a 2011 Copa America win.

Santos, on the other hand, was in charge as Portugal won their first major trophy ever two summers ago.

These are two geniuses of international management who thrive on tight games. This will be a game where one bit of magic will make the difference. Luckily, both sides have a few players who will be more than happy to oblige.

Prediction: Penalties is nailed on for this one. Ronaldo to score his. Portugal to advance. 

6. Spain vs Russia

If it weren’t for the catastrophes that have befallen Germany and Argentina, there would probably be more of a spotlight on Spain. The 2010 winners have been unconvincing since sacking Julen Lopetegui two days before the tournament began.

Uncharacteristically poor performances from David De Gea have seen Spain concede five goals in their three group games. It took a last minute winner for them to beat Morocco, and a narrow win over Iran was enough to see them top a tight group that should have been straightforward.

Russia would have been confident going into this tie had Uruguay not so ruthlessly exposed their deficiencies on Group A’s final match day. Still, with their keeper underperforming and the team yet to find their rhythm, Russia could pull off a major upset. We know this Russia team can score goals against minnows, Spain should dominate the ball in this tie.

Prediction: Spain to beat Russia, but not by as much as they should.

7. Sweden vs Switzerland

An intriguing clash, without a doubt. Sweden’s performances have actually been quietly impressive – drubbing South Korea and Mexico and cruelly losing out to Germany thanks to a last minute Toni Kroos free-kick.

Switzerland come into the game unbeaten, having held Brazil to a 1-1 draw before cutting Serbia to pieces in a politically-charged display of pugilism. They’ve also conceded in each of their games, something that Sweden should be able to exploit. This game is hard to call, and it’s a win for the neutrals that either Switzerland or Sweden will end up in the quarter finals.

A win for the neutrals? Eh? Eh? I said “the neutrals.” Because—

Prediction: A competent but narrow win for Sweden. Xhaka to get sent off.

8. Denmark vs Croatia

Croatia hold a distinction of being one of only two teams to turn in three genuinely good performances so far. Nevertheless, across the 270 minutes of football they’ve played so far, Denmark have never really been on the back foot.

Their final group game against France proved that the Danes have a prodigious skill for sucking the life out of a clash and suffocating the game to death in its cot — even when faced with superstars. Stars of the only 0-0 of the World Cup so far, Denmark will likely do all they can to keep their last 16 tie a very tight affair and rely on a moment of magic from Christian Eriksen, aka the Danish Oliver Cromwell.

After what we saw in Denmark vs France, we can’t say that we’re excited to watch this one, but we are wishing Croatia’s Golden Generation all the best.

Prediction: Croatia win but Denmark will succeed in making it boring.