Zero Rucks Given: Jerry Flannery on what the latest Welsh move means for the future of rugby

The moves this week mean we are definitely facing into a brave new rugby world. Question is, how will it pan out?

With the Welsh regions now coming out in support of ditching the Heineken Cup for the French/English backed Rugby Champions Cup, the future looks bleak for the ERC-backed competition. My main concern is who’s going to be in charge of the running of this new competition. If it becomes the premier competition generating the most revenue, superseding everything else, what way will it go? I fear it could end up trying to emulate football. In a similar way to the Premier League football clubs in England, it is money men that are behind a lot of the English and French rugby clubs? I’d be concerned that they possibly – or even probably – don’t have the best interests of rugby in mind. To be fair I do appreciate a lot of the gripes they’ve had with the current Heineken Cup format. Yes, qualification should be on merit and the tournament money should be evenly distributed and, frustratingly for everyone, the ERC seem to have been very slow in looking to rectify this. I understand the club owners' frustration in not being able to negotiate their television rights deals themselves, particularly as I would be fairly confident in saying the majority of rugby clubs in Europe clubs aren’t making a whole lot of profit right now. But their vested interest in their own club clashes with the union’s idea of how the game should be run. The union’s priority remains the national sides and the development of the game overall. I don’t think rugby is strong enough to let clubs become the dominant decision makers in the sport. Rugby is not football, so a Premier League-style breakaway is not feasible in the long run. The IRFU are funded primarily by the revenue generated from the national side. The unions and the ERC have been looking to develop the game, promote it in countries that are on the fringes of the game and keep it alive and progress it in others like Italy and Scotland. Bringing in qualification on merit will put more pressure on those places. It would make the Rabo more exciting as the stakes would be raised as each team vies for the European Cup qualification places but unfortunately it’s all looking a bit late for that now. With the Welsh regions jumping ship now, it looks doomed. From an Irish point of view, the big fear is the financial impact, and the ability to hold onto players that comes from that hit. The IRFU, compared to the Welsh regions, are in much better financial shape, so it appears the Welsh really had to follow where they think the money is going to be to help them stay afloat. The influx of the Sky Sports television money into the English Premier League in the ‘90s led to the club game overtaking the international game in importance.  The gate money and television deal money in the football club game has now meant that international matches are not as big a draw as Champions League or Premier League games. Premiership Rugby's top man, Mark McCafferty I just don’t think the support base for rugby is at that level. Saracens, for example, have been losing money for years. It's fine when a guy comes in and pumps money in but what if he loses interest/business gets in trouble/gets divorced whatever, and then he may no longer have the resources to plug the shortfall every season and therefore be forced to pull out of the club. If these sorts of guys get put in charge of this new competition, the one with the biggest revenue, then the fear is they may get out if the going gets tough. At least with the unions you know they are in it for the long haul. It’s safer. When the game first went pro, I remember the likes of Richmond and Bristol throwing out big contracts and the thought back then was that it was a Premier League 2.0 sort of thing. But the crowds weren’t there to support it, and they still aren’t. Test games do bring in big money, but the club level doesn’t, in Ireland or England. There were empty seats at Thomond Park for the Heineken cup game against Gloucester last week and if a team is not really winning, support will drop off. Leinster have a great thing going right now, packed even for Rabo games at the RDS, but the hardcore is still relatively small in the sport. The fans I call the 50/50 fans, who go because it is an occasion, or a good night out, some may in time become hardcore but the rest are generally the first to fall away if the wins dry up. How the funds are divvied up is the big headache, but I just don’t see how the ERC can keep all parties happy at this stage. On a happier note, Ulster’s performance in France last week has to be recognised. It was awesome. I predicted they would do it at the JOE Rugby Roadshow last week, unlike Mal O’Kelly, who gave them no chance. It was a real statement of intent, and it wasn’t the only one either. It’s all good news coming out of there. Three-year deal for Henry, three-year deal for Marshall, three-year deal for Pienaar; these are a few of their most important players, all now fully committed to the cause. It shows ambition, beyond this year, and they have loads of young lads just heading for their prime. For the younger players, sometimes they need a game like that Montpellier win to make them realise ‘shit, we really have something going here’. I didn’t fancy Montpellier to win the Heineken this year but it is still a tough place to go. The key to playing well in France is to really stand up to them in the first 20 minutes. They try to bury you then and if you can survive that onslaught, you have a shot. I don’t subscribe to the ‘you have to lose one to win one theory’ but Ulster have been close before, they have the pain of those near misses in their bones, and that helps push you on. The blend of hungry young lads with experienced senior pros, plus strength in depth means they look really well set up to do big things this season. I just hope that the same European adventures are there for Irish sides the season after next.