Unfortunately, Ireland need more than just a win against Wales to get into the World Cup play-offs.
Too many draws have taken it out of Ireland’s hands, and now the fate of Martin O’Neill’s men depends on results elsewhere throughout the continent need to go our way.
Ireland had today hoped that Bosnia’s defeat by Belgium would be followed-up by Greece’s failure to beat Cyprus. Sadly, Greece eked out a 2-1 win in the end, scoring twice just minutes after Cyprus had taken the lead.
The next best solution to Ireland’s problem comes tomorrow, when Scotland travel to Slovenia. Scotland are currently second in their group, but if they fail to beat fourth place Slovenia then Ireland or Wales will be guaranteed a play-off place ahead of the Group F runner-up.
Should Scotland beat Slovenia, Ireland will have another get out of jail card on Monday. Croatia and Ukraine are vying for second place in Group I — and if the two should cancel each other out and draw then Ireland or Wales will be guaranteed a play-off place ahead of them.
Miracles could occur elsewhere, but they’re deeply unlikely. In Group H, if Greece were to be beaten by minnows Gibraltar and Bosnia were to beat Estonia then Bosnia would finish bottom in the league table of second-place teams. Similarly, if Norway were to beat Northern Ireland by three goals, an Ireland win could be enough to send us into the play-offs.
As it stands, Ireland’s best chance would appear to be appear to be a bottle-job by Scotland in Slovenia. There are only three points between those two sides, and Slovenia are at home, meaning that a draw is more than possible. Similarly, Croatia and Ukraine are level on points and the last game saw Croatia squeak a 1-0 win… meaning that a draw is plausible there too.
After that, there’s just the minor matter of beating Wales…
