Well… shit.
Ireland could lose up to 40,000 jobs over the next ten years if there is a hard Brexit, according to the Gabriel Fagan, chief economist at the Central Bank of Ireland.
Speaking the Seanad special select committee on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU and initially reported by The Irish Times, Fagan said: “Our estimates suggest that after 10 years, GDP would be lower by 3%.”
Fagan said that the long and short term economic effects of such an exit would be negative according to the bank’s analysis.
He noted that the main concern of the UK’s exit from the EU would be a hard Brexit which “may require sudden regulatory and financial adjustments during a period of heightened uncertainty in the financial services sector”.
But what exactly is a hard Brexit?
A hard Brexit, which is favoured by the more hardline Brexiteers, would likely mean the UK giving up all access to the single market and the customs union along with the EU.
Britain would have full control over its borders, establishing trade deals with other countries and establishing laws within their own borders.
They would likely fall back on the World Trade Organisation (WTO) trade rules for initial trade deals with EU member states.
This would mean that UK goods and services would likely be subject to tariffs, adding around 10% to the cost of these goods and services.
Fagan warned the Seanad committee that it would be small businesses in Ireland who would be most affected should the UK fails to strike a free-trade deal with the EU when it leaves the bloc.
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