Across the board.
The Economic and Social Research Institute has said that “sizeable” tax increases will be needed to fund public services in the years to come.
In a new report published on Thursday, the think-tank said future spending pressures combined with potential declines in corporation and motor tax receipts meant that higher taxes were likely in the coming years.
It said that Ireland already faced challenges before the pandemic due to an ageing population and a shift to a carbon free economy.
While the ESRI found that any changes to tax should be left until the economy had recovered from the pandemic, it said increases in income tax, VAT or the local property tax could raise “significant” sums of money.
“An ageing population, commitments to future spending increases, and potential declines in both corporation and motor tax receipts made the need for significant future tax rises likely even before the pandemic,” author of the report, Dr Barra Roantree said.
“Increases in broad-based taxes on incomes, consumption and property may therefore be needed in the years ahead.”
What sort of tax increases are the ESRI talking about?
The most straightforward one is a 1% increase to the standard and higher rates of income tax, taking them to 21% and 41% respectively. The ESRI said this would raise almost €1 billion each year, with the majority of this money coming from the top third of income earners.
However the ESRI said this would be a less progressive route as the “income tax is levied on the joint income of most married couples”.
While another way would be to increase the top Universal Social Charge (USC) rate for high earners, increasing the 11% rate for non-PAYE income to 12%, and earning the exchequer a modest €14 million extra each year.
However the report also said a 3% USC surcharge could raise an additional €110 million each year.
“This increase would again primarily affect those in the very highest income decile, with an average loss of just over 0.50 per cent of disposable income, compared to less than 0.10 per cent for others in the top half of the income distribution and negligible impacts for those in the bottom half,” the ESRI said.
The report found if the Government were to revise the valuations for the Property Tax, which originally done in 2013, to reflect current market rates, it could raise an additional €275m per year. While the ESRI also suggested a higher property tax could help to ease property price inflation.
The ESRI also queried the “questionable economic rationale” behind certain tax reliefs linked to pensions and capital gains tax, which it said were poorly targeted.
LISTEN: You Must Be Jokin’ with Aideen McQueen – Faith healers, Coolock craic and Gigging as Gaeilge
