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25th Jun 2014

Maths says you are more likely to be bitten by Luis Suarez than a shark

You can't argue with maths...


You can’t argue with maths…

We’ll level with you, when we saw this story first, we thought it was from The Onion. But no, this story originates from the respectable organ that is the New Statesman.

Their man Ian Steadman decided to crunch the numbers on Luis Suarez after the Uruguayan committed his third act of on-pitch opponent chewing in just under four years.

Using Suarez’ total of 441 games as a pro, that works out at a bite every 147 games. Then, using the fact that he will face 14 different opponents per game, that works out at three bites on a total of 6,160, or roughly one in 2,000.

Therefore, if you play against him you are much more likely to get bitten than you are bitten by a shark in the ocean, where the odds are a monstrous one in 3.7million.

Some folks resented this comparison, saying it was not fair to compare the two as the shark figure was for fatalities and it counted all the oceans around America, much of which are shark free.

Better to compare a shark heavy area as that would be more comparable to being on the pitch with Chewy Luis.

The writer picked New Smyrna Beach, Florida, known as the shark attack capital of the world, according to the article.

With 22,464 inhabitants, and four shark attacks so far in 2014, that works out at one in 2,808 chance if you live in the town, assuming all swim once a year. That is still above the odds a Luis Suarez opponent faces. The record year of attacks, 28 in 2008, would mean the odds are about one in 800. With average somewhere between the two, playing against Suarez is similarly dangerous to swimming in an area known for shark attacks.

Science 1 Luis Suarez 0.