Petrol prices held steady in September, but they are going up from November

A quiet month after the summer

In September, petrol averaged €1.87 per litre, up just over three cent on August's average of €1.84.

Meanwhile, diesel averaged €1.94 per litre, up two cent on €1.92 in August, and after the summer that counts as a quiet month.

Here’s why the petrol prices did not move much

Why this all happened is mostly due to a tax increase that did not happen.

While excise rates had been due to begin returning to pre-reduction levels from 1 September, this would have added nine cent to a litre of petrol and 10 cent to a litre of diesel.

In late August the government deferred those increases and approved the deferral on 27 August.

AA Ireland has pointed out that this is a deferral and not a reversal, so that leaves the reduced rates in place until the end of October.

What will happen on 1 November – all you need to know

An AA Ireland spokesperson revealed that “the reduced rates hold until the end of October, and from 1 November excise starts to be restored in four stages, beginning with five cents on petrol and seven cents on diesel”.

“The reduced NORA levy ends on 31 October as well”, the official added.

Further, they added that “anyone budgeting for the winter should plan on the basis that pump prices will rise from November, even if wholesale prices stay where they are.”

As wholesale prices are not staying where they are, that last clause is doing a lot of work.

Further, AA Ireland notes its figures were gathered before the most recent moves in international energy markets, and oil prices climbed again on Monday.

Following strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure, brent crude futures rose 2.8% to $107.54 a barrel and WTI gained 2.9% to $102.93.

For the first time since July going above $100, oil surged 8% last week.

AA Ireland further added that pump prices continue to be shaped by international oil supply, geopolitical uncertainty and currency movements.

To make things more simple, the wholesale side and the tax side are both pointing the same way, and it is not down.