Vivid greenery, the world’s best golfers and one of the betting markets of the year. Here’s who will be carrying JOE’s hopes around Augusta National.
While phrases like ‘pine straw’, ‘Amen Corner’ and ‘patrons’ will be bombarding the airwaves and fairways over the next four days, some of us prefer to look at the race for the green jacket as one of the highlights of the punting year.
With Cheltenham and the Grand National just behind us, Augusta kicks off the golf betting year in earnest and it is the most fun of all the Majors to have a quid on.
That doesn’t mean it is easy to find a winner but with a smaller field than the rest, and with the same course every year meaning you can have proper ‘course and distance’ form lines, it is the one Major where you can think you have the bookies beat ever year before it tees off.
So, how do we split up our fund this year? Firstly we’re ignoring Tiger Woods. We’re happy to see the big fella back in form, and he is a more genuine threat this year than at any time since his well-publicised fall from grace, but he is way too short at 9/2 and we’re betting that he doesn’t win.
From those near the top we’re going to opt for Louis Oosthuizen for our straight win bet. The South African is 28/1 and after missing three cuts he finally worked out how to play Augusta last year. He finished second and would have won but for Bubba’s heroics. Already a Major winner, he is fourth in the scrambling stats (vital in the Masters) and his putting from 5 to 10 feet is also top class (fifth in the stats) Add in his very good 10th in the Houston Open last time out and he’s the best bet out of those near the head of the market for me.
We’re backing Louis to go one better this year
For the home based players, who have dominated this event in recent years, we like the look of Matt Kuchar (35/1), Jason Duffner (66/1) and Bill Haas (66/1) but we’re going for another name for our EW bet.
Russell Henley, at 150/1, looks to be a great bit of value. The 23-year-old, who turns 24 on Friday, won on his PGA Tour debut in Hawaii earlier this year and he was so impressive it was hard to believe it was his first spin out with the big boys.
Since then he has made six of eight cuts and his stats make him a real live threat to win this week. Sixth in the total driving stats (very important in the Masters) and fifth in total putting (super important in Augusta) the rookie has the tools to thrive this week.
Add in the fact he’s a Georgia native, and that he played the course quite a bit while attending University of Georgia, and we can’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be worth a fiver EW at least at that price, especially as most bookies pay out on the top six these days.
Finally, if 150/1 isn’t long enough for you, try Kevin Na. The Korean American is 350/1 to win this week but we think there’s a bit of value to be had there too. He withdrew from his most recent event, the Puerto Rico Open, in early March with a back injury and he hasn’t played since but we like the look of the man who finished 12th in Augusta last year.
He doesn’t hit it far, but we have seen shorter hitting winners here in the last decade (Mike Weir and Zach Johnson). The real reason to plump for Na is his incredible skill on the greens. First in birdie or better conversion on Tour, only a ropey 75 on Day 2 last year cost him a place in the payout places.
Na is a long shot to win it, but he is capable of a place, and worth a cheeky euro at those odds.
By the way, we think there are too many questions over Rory McIlroy’s consistency to back the Holywood man this week but Ian Poulter, at 12/1, looks a great bet to be top European.
