This is the least clear-cut Oscar race in recent memory.
Normally, by this point, there are two or three movies which will have a clear head-start in the potential awards season, with a few more late-comers joining the party around Christmas to fill out the ranks.
However, this year, the level of quality has been so insanely high, that it is anyone’s guess how they manage to get this list down to just ten movies.
So here’s our guesses at the movies most likely to get awards attention in the next few months:
Frontrunners
The movie that pretty much everyone has ear-marked for definite Oscar-attention is Call Me By Your Name, a gay coming-of-age drama featuring great performances and some sumptuous visuals. We talked about the trailer here, and it will defo take up one of the ten Best Picture slots.
As for other definites, then you can expect Guillermo Del Toro’s fantasy-horror-romance The Shape Of Water to be a good bet, as well as Martin McDonagh’s dark comedy thriller Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, both of which have been winning festival awards left, right and centre recently.
After that though… it is anyone’s guess. Gary Oldman will probably get a Best Actor nod for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, and Saoirse Ronan is wowing everyone in indie dramedy Lady Bird, but whether they’ll follow through to Best Picture nods too isn’t clear yet.
Outside of that, there’s James Franco’s The Disaster Artist, a movie about making the worst movie ever made, which is getting some stellar reviews. The Flordia Project seems like the kind of “this has an important modern message” movie that the Oscars usually get themselves up in a fuss about, while Molly’s Game sees Oscar-magnet Aaron Sorkin making his directorial debut, so any one of those is also in with a solid shout.
Clip via FoxSearchlight
Blockbusters
Every year, there is usually one big blockbuster that makes the crossover to awards-attention. Inception, Mad Max: Fury Road, Toy Story 3, Gravity and The Martian have all been nominated for Best Picture in recent years, and 2018 looks set to be filled with potential big money makers joining that crowd.
The first obvious choice is Dunkirk – not only is Nolan loved by the Oscars, but its a war movie, a little bit arty, and made loadsa money – but there was also an unusually strong comic book contention this year with Logan and Wonder Woman both getting strong Oscar campaigns behind them
Elsewhere, both Get Out and War For The Planet Of The Apes are potentials, but as you’ll see further down, they’re far from the only ones who might be up for contention…
Netflix & Friends
This week saw The Handmaid’s Tale win Best Drama at the Emmys, the first streaming service product to ever win the award. The 2018 Oscars could see something similar happen, as Netflix and Amazon Studios are both putting up a very impressive line-up.
Racial drama Mudbound (trailer here) is the one that is getting the most noise right now, but the (and we can’t believe we’re saying this) Adam Sandler / Ben Stiller dramedy The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected) is getting some serious traction from early reviews.
Angelina Jolie’s latest directorial outing First They Killed My Father is also generating a lot of heat – Cambodia have selected it for their official Foreign Language consideration, which may kill the Best Picture chances – and Okja was a bit of a fan favourite when it was released during the summer this year.
Then we’ve got Woody Allen’s latest Wonder Wheel (he’s always a bit of a shot in the dark, but lead actress Kate Winslett is always reliable), the hot topic in Last Flag Flying involves war veterans and features Bryan Cranston and Steve Carrell being directed by the guy behind Boyhood, so that has a lot of the ingredients usually found in a nomination. And finally there is The Big Sick, which was released in mid-summer, and could maintain enough goodwill to see it through to early next year.
Clip via Amazon Studios
Outliers
Here we have the mix of the too obvious choices and the too weird to be considered, but we’re always willing to be proven wrong. The Theory Of Everything didn’t deserve the Best Picture nom, and we never in a million years would’ve guessed Whiplash would get recognised, but you can’t ever trust the Oscars to even follow their own rules with these things.
Battle Of The Sexes and I, Tonya are both dealing with true-life sporting legends, but in incredibly different ways, both of which might instead just end up getting their leading actresses (Emma Stone and Margot Robbie, respectively) a Best Actress nomination.
The Upside is a remake of the French hit The Intouchables, while Stronger is a biopic of a Boston Marathon bombing survivor, and they both approach the topic of physical in different ways, which means only one of them will likely make the shortlist.
Downsizing comes from the director of the Sideways and The Descendants (pro), but involves a big sci-fi idea (con), so it could either way, and while we can’t stop talking about Mother!, we would be very surprised if it managed to secure a nom, despite it very much deserving one.
Clip via Paramount Pictures
Biggies Still To Come
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood, Boogie Nights, The Master) and Daniel Day Lewis (on what is rumoured to be his last ever movie) work together on Phantom Thread, so even if that is the worst film ever made, it will still get nominated.
Steven Spielberg works with Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep go full All The President’s Men as journalists taking on the government (topical!) in The Post, so again, worst film ever? Still nominated.
Clint Eastwood directs the true story of a thwarted terrorist plot in The 15:17 To Paris, Ridley Scott directs the true story of one of the most infamous kidnapping stories in All The Money In The World (trailer here) and Hugh Jackman stars in the true story of one of the biggest circus acts in history in The Greatest Showman. Nobody has seen any of them, so they could be amazing, or they could be muck. Time will tell.
Kenneth Branagh directs and stars in – along with half of Hollywood – Murder On The Orient Express, and while The Force Awakens didn’t do much outside of the technical departments, don’t entirely discount Star Wars: Episode XIII – The Last Jedi or Blade Runner 2049 from blowing us all away just yet.
Clip via 20th Century Fox
LISTEN: You Must Be Jokin’ with Aideen McQueen – Faith healers, Coolock craic and Gigging as Gaeilge
